2026/2027 season

Bundesliga

Team page
Bundesliga · Team page
Hamburger SV
Head coach: Merlin Polzin · 3-4-2-1. Cohérent entre Get German Football News (20/08/2026) et le onze aligné à Dortmund le 29/08/2026 (Heuer Fernandes - Torunarigha, Bornauw, Capaldo - Lemke, Remberg, Sambi Lokonga, Jatta - Grønbæk, Adeline - Daka) ; BuLi News parlait pour sa part d'un 3-4-3.
Rank
9th
Pts
9
P
6
Form
🟢 Good

The essentials at a glance

The summary of this page: estimated level of play, form trend and qualitative verdict. For the details, head to the other tabs.

Editors' ratings
3/10
Attack
3/10
Defence
6/10
Form
4/10
Confidence / mood
Current risk:Very high

9th with 9 pts from 6 matches: 3 wins, 0 draws, 3 defeats.

6 goals scored, 15 conceded.

The Swiss documents its value for the HSV. His club can finally compensate for significant losses.

Welt Sport · 18 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

The Hamburger SV wins 1-0 against VfB Stuttgart and continues its upswing. Miro Muheim decides a Bundesliga game for the second time in succession – and with a special shot.

Welt Sport · 18 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

Werder Bremen is once again catching up with a 0-2 backlog, the HSV celebrates late thanks to Miro Muheim.

Welt Sport · 17 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

As in the previous week, it was Miro Muheim who shot the HSV to the late victory. The Volksparkstadion shook when the Swiss drove the ball with a stroke into the Stuttgart goal.

kicker · 17 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

How the team has played recently

Match-by-match results, record and rhythm of the current season.

Latest matches
Wvs VfB Stuttgart (H) · 1-0
Wvs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (A) · 3-2
Wvs 1. FC Köln (H) · 2-1
Lvs RB Leipzig (A) · 0-5
Lvs 1. FSV Mainz 05 (H) · 0-5
WWWLLL
6 scored / 15 conceded over 6 matches played
Rest: 1 day since the last match · 2 matches played in the last 15 days
Home form
2W - 0D - 1L
Away form
1W - 0D - 2L
Statistics

Computed from this season's scores, every time the page is shown.

Goals scored per match
1.2
Goals conceded per match
2.6
At home
3 scored · 6 conceded in 3 matches
Away
3 scored · 7 conceded in 2 matches
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 5
Both teams score
2 of 5
Clean sheets
1 of 5
Failed to score
2 of 5
Cumulative points vs league average

Not enough matchdays recorded yet for this curve — history builds up with every standings refresh.

How Hamburger SV play

System, playing identity, and what sets the team apart at both ends of the pitch.

Playing identity
Preferred system
3-4-2-1. Cohérent entre Get German Football News (20/08/2026) et le onze aligné à Dortmund le 29/08/2026 (Heuer Fernandes - Torunarigha, Bornauw, Capaldo - Lemke, Remberg, Sambi Lokonga, Jatta - Grønbæk, Adeline - Daka) ; BuLi News parlait pour sa part d'un 3-4-3.
Philosophy
Build-up organised from midfield, width provided by the wing-backs rather than by wingers, and two creators positioned in the half-spaces behind the centre-forward.
Attacking strengths
Blank in the opener (0-2 at Dortmund); 3-0 in the Cup round at Verl (brace from Grønbæk, goal from 16-year-old Louis Lemke) and an average of two goals per match in pre-season. Last season's benchmark: only 40 goals in 34 matchdays.
Defensive solidity
54 goals conceded in 2025-26 for a 13th place (38 points); 2 conceded in the opener at Dortmund (Karetsas 9', Beier 45+1'), with a reshuffled centre-back pairing deprived of Warmed Omari.
Pressing
Insufficient in the first outing, by the head coach's own admission: “We were too passive and did not manage to find the pressing moments” (Polzin, 30/08/2026).
Transitions
Smothered by Dortmund's counter-pressing in the first half (70% possession for the opposition), then markedly more aggressive after the break without managing to make it count.
StrengthA stable Remberg - Sambi Lokonga central midfield axis, Albert Grønbæk signed permanently and regarded as the player who makes the difference, the depth brought by Patson Daka, and a generation of young defenders (Lemke, Nandja, Bissi-Mouelle) making their mark.
WeaknessThe departure of loanees Luka Vušković and Fábio Vieira leaves a real quality deficit, the back-up for Bakery Jatta at right wing-back is not settled, the integration of the newly signed forwards is ongoing, and the defence is weakened by injuries.

The mood around the club, and who is missing

Internal climate, relationship with the supporters, and known absences before the next match.

Mood
Squad confidence
HSV are coming off a respectable defeat at Dortmund, where the second half showed a distinctly more aggressive face than the first. Merlin Polzin highlights collective progress rather than the result, and Terem Moffi's successful cameo gave him immediate satisfaction. Hosting Mainz on Sunday 6 September at 15:30 is the season's first real home fixture and must get them off the mark. The squad knows, however, that its centre of defence is weakened by an injury list that now has three long-term absences, two of them for several months.
Coach / players / board relationship
The sporting directors ran a window of unusual scale right to the last hour, with the arrivals of Fabio Vieira, Zakaria El Ouahdi and David Møller Wolfe, then kept trimming after the German deadline. Daniel Elfadli was given permission to negotiate and then sold to LASK Linz, and Rayan Philippe was loaned to Paderborn on 1 September. Merlin Polzin, for his part, is communicating publicly about a gradual build-up for his signings, in particular Terem Moffi, whose playing time he wants to increase in stages. No public disagreement between staff and board has been reported by the outlets consulted.
Mood with the supporters
The Hamburg public stayed patient after a failed opener at Dortmund, in a context where the squad has been deeply reshaped within a few weeks. Hosting Mainz, scheduled for a Sunday afternoon, should allow the Volksparkstadion's real buy-in to this new group to be measured. No protest, banner or tension with the board has been reported by the sources consulted. The local media debate is for now focused on defensive depth, reduced to Shafiq Nandja behind Sebastiaan Bornauw and Jordan Torunarigha after Elfadli's departure.
Pressure on the head coach
Pressure on Merlin Polzin remains low. He is coming off survival secured with games to spare in the first season back in the top flight and is the subject of no reported public criticism. His voice remains central to the club's communications, whether explaining Terem Moffi's role or putting the opening defeat in perspective. A poor result at home to Mainz would change the tone of the week, but nothing today suggests a debate about his position.
Club objectives
No official numerical target for 2026-27 could be verified. Verified: the club points out that it reached its objective ahead of schedule in its first year back in the Bundesliga. External previews (BuLi News) place HSV between 9th and 11th place and identify the “second-season syndrome” as the real issue — this is a media opinion, not a club objective.
Recent internal tensions
No collective tension is reported. The summer saga around Fábio Vieira ended with a permanent return from Arsenal, and that around Daniel Elfadli with a negotiated departure to Austria, with no conflict expressed on either side. The only identified sporting friction point is the depth at centre-back, judged insufficient by the specialist press after two departures and no arrival in that position. The new wing-backs, very attack-minded, also impose a defensive adjustment Polzin will have to sort out quickly.
Absences
InjuredWarmed Omari — Shoulder injury confirmed by MRI and treated conservatively; around three weeks already missed, total duration not disclosed.
InjuredFernando Dickes — A goalkeeper in fitness rehabilitation after a shoulder injury; close to six months out recorded, return undated.
InjuredAlexander Røssing-Lelesiit — Syndesmosis rupture; in fitness rehabilitation, with more than four months already missed.

Before kick-off

What to know before the next match: statistical form, qualitative analysis, and a computed estimate of the 1/X/2 probabilities.

Next match

SC Paderborn 07 — Hamburger SV

AwaySaturday 24 October at 15:30Matchday 7
In 6 days. Kick-off time confirmed by the league. Paris time · football-data.org fixtures.

Prediction, odds and form of both teams →

What the press says

No preview found for this fixture. The press mostly covers the big games, and usually the day before.

Prediction
EstimateSC Paderborn 07 — Hamburger SV
56 %
1 · SC Paderborn 07
22 %
X · draw
22 %
2 · Hamburger SV
In-house calculation, from this page's standings data alone: 6 matches played by SC Paderborn 07, 6 matches by Hamburger SV. Confidence: medium
The formula, in plain words — with this match's figures
  1. League average. 193 goals scored over 104 team-matches played (18 teams taken into account), i.e. μ = 1.86 goal scored per team per match. This is the reference point: everything that follows is expressed relative to it.
  2. Attacking and defensive strengths. Goals scored (or conceded) per match, divided by μ. 1.00 = exactly average; in defence, above 1.00 means “concedes more than average”.
    TeamGoalsRawKept
    SC Paderborn 07 — attack5 in 6 matches0.450.72
    SC Paderborn 07 — defence9 in 6 matches0.810.90
    Hamburger SV — attack6 in 6 matches0.540.77
    Hamburger SV — defence15 in 6 matches1.351.17
    The “Kept” column is the result of shrinkage towards the mean: weight = P / (P + 6), i.e. 0.50 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0.50 for Hamburger SV. The rest of the weight goes to the league average. This is what stops a lone 5-0 from producing an attack at 3.3 times the average — and hence a 95% probability.
  3. Home advantage (γ). Measured on the league itself: 2.23 goal scored on average by the host against 1.48 by the visitor, over the 44 fixtures present in each team's last 5 matches. Raw ratio 1.51; shrunk towards 1 (weight 0.42, on the log of the ratio) then capped at 1.25 → γ = 1.19. Shrinkage goes towards 1, i.e. no advantage at all: while the sample is small, the model does not assert a home advantage it cannot measure.
  4. Venue correction, specific to each team. Drawn from the home/away split: points per match at the venue concerned are compared to points per match over all fixtures, with stronger shrinkage (weight = P / (P + 8)) and a bound of ±12%.
    SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.00 pts/match versus 0.83 overall over 3 matches → ×1.055
    Hamburger SV away: 1.00 pts/match versus 1.50 overall over 3 matches → ×0.909
  5. Expected goals. One side's attack is set against the other's defence. γ applies to the host only: applying it the other way round too would count the home advantage twice.
    λSC Paderborn 07 = 1.86 × 0.72 × 1.17 × 1.19 × 1.055 = 1.98
    λHamburger SV = 1.86 × 0.77 × 0.90 × 0.909 = 1.17
  6. Poisson grid. Probability of every exact score from 0-0 to 8-8, assuming the two goal totals are independent, then adding up the cells: home win 56.1%, draw 21.7%, away win 22.3% — displayed rounded to whole numbers so that they add up to exactly 100. Most likely exact score in the grid: 1-1 (only 9.9%, which says enough about how unpredictable an exact score is).
Limits of this model — they are not anecdotal.
  • It only knows goals and a venue. Neither absences, suspensions, line-ups, fatigue, stakes, weather nor club context enter the calculation — while the other tabs of this page show that they matter.
  • The assumption that the two goal totals are independent is false in reality: it slightly underestimates tight scores, hence the draw.
  • γ is measured over a rolling window (each team's last 5 matches), not over the whole season.
  • The shrinkage constants (6, 60, 8) and the bounds are choices, not measurements. They were tuned to be cautious early in the season; they were not calibrated on a results history, as none is available here.
  • No after-the-fact evaluation has been made: at this stage, nobody knows whether this model is better or worse calibrated than another.
What other sources say
No external source has been collected for this match. That is the normal state: readings are taken by hand, and an empty box is better than an unverified figure.
This block shows probability estimates, not predictions, and carries no advisory value. The in-house estimate is the result of a formula applied to a small sample; the figures from external sources are reproduced as they were collected, without their method having been verified.

The full squad

The professional squad by position, captain marked with an armband.

Goalkeepers
  • Daniel Heuer Fernandes
  • Sander Tangvik
  • Fernando Dickes
Defenders
  • Sebastiaan Bornauw
  • Jordan Torunarigha
  • Miro Muheim
  • Warmed Omari
  • Joel Agyekum
  • Shafiq Nandja
  • Louis Lemke
  • Jason Bissi-Mouelle
  • Bakery Jatta
Midfielders
  • Nicolai RembergC
  • Albert Sambi Lokonga
  • Albert Grønbæk
  • Nicolás Capaldo
  • Daniel Elfadli
  • Bilal Nadir
  • Martin Adeline
  • Kofi Amoako
  • Immanuel Pherai
Forwards
  • Patson Daka
  • Terem Moffi
  • Rayan Philippe
  • Yussuf Poulsen
  • Emir Sahiti
  • Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit
  • Otto Stange
  • Kelvin Ojo
Squad last verified on 31 Aug 2026 — source: 2026/27 squad from sport.de, cross-checked with fussballdaten.de and with the matchday 1 line-up at Dortmund. The classification by position differs between sources (Bakery Jatta, Nicolás Capaldo and Daniel Elfadli are placed differently from one site to another); Fábio Baldé, still listed by fussballdaten.de, left for Strasbourg on 14/08/2026. Captain confirmed by the bundesliga.com article on the 2026/27 captains (Remberg succeeds Yussuf Poulsen)..

What has been said recently

Chronological feed of verified information about the club.

rss17 Oct 2026
Polzin: "The path to which we have committed ourselves as HSV"
Source: kicker
rss17 Oct 2026
Hoeneß struggles with HSV moments: "Especially like against us"
Source: kicker
rss17 Oct 2026
Factor Volkspark, Muheim and the "newly invented HSV"
Source: kicker
rss17 Oct 2026
Hamburger SV - Stuttgart, live - 124; Bundesliga
Source: Mundo Deportivo
rss17 Oct 2026
HSV cheers late - Double pack of filling pitcher - Worries about Karetsas - Curiosities from Elversberg
Source: kicker
rss17 Oct 2026
BVB bugs and worries about Karetsas – Füllkrug saves Bremen – late ecstasy at HSV
Source: Welt Sport
Injury3 Sep 2026
Hamburg's injury list is becoming clearer: goalkeeper Fernando Dickes is in fitness rehabilitation after a shoulder injury and has already missed close to six months, while Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit has a syndesmosis rupture and is not expected for several months. Warmed Omari remains sidelined by his shoulder injury.
Source: LigaInsider
Transfers2 Sep 2026
Daniel Elfadli's departure is now confirmed: the versatile defender joins LASK Linz, in Austria, having failed to establish himself as a starter. His departure, added to Luka Vušković's, leaves only Shafiq Nandja as central cover behind Sebastiaan Bornauw and Jordan Torunarigha.
Source: Moin Volkspark
Club2 Sep 2026
Centre-back Daniel Elfadli, who arrived in 2024 and is under contract until 2028, was given permission by HSV to negotiate a move to Austria, whose transfer window remained open beyond the German date.
Source: Fussballdaten
Transfers1 Sep 2026
Forward Rayan Philippe was sold to SC Paderborn 07 on deadline day, after competition between several clubs. The promoted Bundesliga side presented him officially on 1 September.
Source: SC Paderborn 07 (site officiel)
Transfers1 Sep 2026
Deadline day was very busy: Fabio Vieira arrived permanently from Arsenal, Moroccan full-back Zakaria El Ouahdi was bought from KRC Genk and David Möller Wolfe arrived on loan with a purchase option from Wolverhampton.
Source: Fussballdaten
Head coach30 Aug 2026
Merlin Polzin set out his plan for Terem Moffi: HSV were looking for a forward able “to draw balls forward, to impose himself and to win the ball back” with “extreme pace”. On in the 67th minute at Dortmund, the Nigerian “directly influenced the game” according to his head coach, who says he wants to increase his playing time gradually.
Source: LigaInsider
Result29 Aug 2026
HSV lost 2-0 at Dortmund on matchday 1, conceding to Serhou Guirassy (9) and Giannis Konstantelias (45+1). The club did take heart after the break, Patson Daka hitting the post among other chances, before remaining powerless despite the numerical advantage gained in the 77th minute.
Source: Bundesliga.com
Other29 Aug 2026
0-2 defeat at Dortmund in the opener (Karetsas 9', Beier 45+1'): Hamburg suffered the opposition's counter-pressing for 45 minutes before lifting their heads in the second half without scoring; Grønbæk was the best-rated Hamburg player.
Source: Get German Football News
Transfers24 Aug 2026
HSV sign Nigerian striker Terem Moffi (27) from OGC Nice for around €2m plus €0.5m in bonuses, with a contract until 2029.
Source: Sky Sport DE
Other24 Aug 2026
Controlled progress in the 1st round of the German Cup: 3-0 at Verl, with a brace from Albert Grønbæk (40', 46') and a goal from 16-year-old Louis Lemke (50') on his professional debut.
Source: t-online
News last verified on 17 Oct 2026. Sources: sports press (L'Équipe, Le Parisien, Foot Mercato, regional press…) and official club websites — see the link on each item.
Editorial content (playing style, mood, absences, external prediction sources) last verified on 3 Sep 2026. The standings/form data above are refreshed automatically — as is the 1/X/2 estimate, recomputed on every view.