2026/2027 season

Bundesliga

Team page
Bundesliga · Team page
SC Paderborn 07
Head coach: Ralf Kettemann · 3-4-3
Rank
15th
Pts
5
P
6
Form
🟠 Poor

The essentials at a glance

The summary of this page: estimated level of play, form trend and qualitative verdict. For the details, head to the other tabs.

Editors' ratings
2/10
Attack
8/10
Defence
3/10
Form
5/10
Confidence / mood
Current risk:High

15th with 5 pts from 6 matches: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 defeats.

5 goals scored, 9 conceded.

How the team has played recently

Match-by-match results, record and rhythm of the current season.

Latest matches
Dvs SV Werder Bremen (A) · 2-2
Lvs VfB Stuttgart (H) · 0-2
Wvs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (H) · 3-1
Lvs Borussia Dortmund (A) · 0-3
Lvs SC Freiburg (H) · 0-1
WDDLLL
5 scored / 9 conceded over 6 matches played
Rest: 1 day since the last match · 2 matches played in the last 15 days
Home form
1W - 0D - 2L
Away form
0W - 2D - 1L
Statistics

Computed from this season's scores, every time the page is shown.

Goals scored per match
1.0
Goals conceded per match
1.8
At home
3 scored · 4 conceded in 3 matches
Away
2 scored · 5 conceded in 2 matches
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 5
Both teams score
2 of 5
Clean sheets
0 of 5
Failed to score
3 of 5
Cumulative points vs league average

Not enough matchdays recorded yet for this curve — history builds up with every standings refresh.

How SC Paderborn 07 play

System, playing identity, and what sets the team apart at both ends of the pitch.

Playing identity
Preferred system
3-4-3
Philosophy
Intense, disciplined football, with a heavy workload and an openly claimed tactical identity; Kettemann, however, announces the end of the systematic rotation practised in the second division (“it is no secret that we no longer share out playing time completely”).
Attacking strengths
No goals on matchday 1 (0-0 at Mainz, 29/08/2026) and very few chances created, whereas Paderborn had the third-best attack in 2. Bundesliga during the promotion season; the arrival of Gabriel Vidovic is aimed precisely at compensating for the departure of goalscorer Filip Bilbija (15 goals) to Derby County.
Defensive solidity
Strong point of the start of the season: a back three (Curda, ter Horst, Scheller) in front of Nahuel Noll held out for the 0-0 at the MEWA ARENA despite clear dominance from Mainz (Tietz off the crossbar, chances for Lee and Amiri).
Pressing
Compact, disciplined block, ready to defend deep and absorb pressure: at Mainz, the team essentially contained and closed down space rather than going to press high.
Transitions
Rare, direct attacking transitions on matchday 1; Laurin Curda, a very athletic left-back/wing-back (7 goals and 7 assists in 32 matches last season, top speed of 34 km/h according to Bundesliga.com), is the main outlet for pushing forward.
StrengthDefensive solidarity and selflessness, a balanced squad with no fixed hierarchy according to its head coach, and a mindset forged by a promotion snatched in the play-off against Wolfsburg (Curda goal in extra time).
WeaknessGlaring lack of attacking power after the departures of Bilbija and several senior players (Dennis Seimen to Stuttgart, Calvin Brackelmann to Augsburg, Mika Baur to Celtic), one of the lowest budgets in the top flight, and a captain behind in his preparation.

The mood around the club, and who is missing

Internal climate, relationship with the supporters, and known absences before the next match.

Mood
Squad confidence
The point taken at Mainz confirmed to the promoted side that it can exist in the top flight by relying on its defensive block and its goalkeeper. The first Bundesliga home fixture in six years, on Saturday 5 September at 15:30 against Freiburg, is being played in front of an almost full Home Deluxe Arena. Ralf Kettemann knows, however, that attacking output remains the big task after a match without a goal or a clear chance. The injury list, with five names, further reduces his room to rotate.
Coach / players / board relationship
The relationship between Ralf Kettemann, sporting director Sebastian Lange and president Thomas Sagel appears calm and aligned on a message of restraint. Lange presented a window that was “demanding but very rewarding”, with Laurin Ulrich, Gabriel Vidović, Marvin Pieringer and Rayan Philippe as additions and Kennedy Okpala loaned to Dynamo Dresden. The board has also been renewed, Frank Schürmann replacing Carsten Linnemann, called into the federal government. No public friction has been reported between staff, board and dressing room.
Mood with the supporters
The euphoria of the return to the top flight comes with a very concrete debate about ticketing: the new Tixx Select ballot has displeased some long-standing members, but the petition launched against it gathered only 122 signatures of the 1,000 hoped for. In practice, almost every member who applied got a seat for Freiburg's visit and the quota was not even exhausted. In parallel the club has launched “Wo ist der Pfau?”, a confidential alert system against harassment and discrimination at the stadium, with quiet spaces and a German Red Cross team. The mood therefore remains supportive, with looking after the public embraced as an institutional priority.
Pressure on the head coach
Pressure on Ralf Kettemann is low. His team delivered in their first match at the highest level and the club publicly embraces an objective of survival, with no demand for immediate results. His board has given him a widened and clearly ranked squad, a break from the systematic rotation practised in the second division. A poor start at home would weigh more on morale than on his position.
Club objectives
The club explicitly aims for more than mere participation: finishing above at least two and ideally three opponents, in other words direct survival after six years in the second division. Sebastian Lange judges the group “well equipped” at the end of the window, with four attacking additions and one loan out. The first short-term objective is to turn the defensive solidity glimpsed at Mainz into points at home. No further numerical objective has been announced.
Recent internal tensions
No sporting tension is reported in the dressing room, the armband given to Laurin Curda at Mainz being presented by the club as a decision linked to Felix Götze's delayed pre-season. The only documented contentious subject is off the pitch: the new method of allocating tickets prompted a supporters' petition, which remained very much a minority view. The club responded by owning an algorithm that favours length of membership while leaving a chance for newcomers. Carsten Linnemann's departure from the board happened without friction.
Absences
InjuredTimur Gayret — Cruciate ligament rupture; a long-term absence, with more than four months already elapsed.
InjuredSebastian Klaas — Absence estimated at around four weeks.
InjuredNyamekye Awortwie-Grant — Multiple injury; out for several weeks.
InjuredSven Michel — In fitness rehabilitation after a muscle injury; being reintegrated gradually.
InjuredLasse Eickel — In fitness rehabilitation, unavailable for Freiburg's visit.

Before kick-off

What to know before the next match: statistical form, qualitative analysis, and a computed estimate of the 1/X/2 probabilities.

Next match

SC Paderborn 07 — Hamburger SV

At homeSaturday 24 October at 15:30Matchday 7
In 6 days. Kick-off time confirmed by the league. Paris time · football-data.org fixtures.
What the press says

No preview found for this fixture. The press mostly covers the big games, and usually the day before.

Prediction
EstimateSC Paderborn 07 — Hamburger SV
56 %
1 · SC Paderborn 07
22 %
X · draw
22 %
2 · Hamburger SV
In-house calculation, from this page's standings data alone: 6 matches played by SC Paderborn 07, 6 matches by Hamburger SV. Confidence: medium
The formula, in plain words — with this match's figures
  1. League average. 193 goals scored over 104 team-matches played (18 teams taken into account), i.e. μ = 1.86 goal scored per team per match. This is the reference point: everything that follows is expressed relative to it.
  2. Attacking and defensive strengths. Goals scored (or conceded) per match, divided by μ. 1.00 = exactly average; in defence, above 1.00 means “concedes more than average”.
    TeamGoalsRawKept
    SC Paderborn 07 — attack5 in 6 matches0.450.72
    SC Paderborn 07 — defence9 in 6 matches0.810.90
    Hamburger SV — attack6 in 6 matches0.540.77
    Hamburger SV — defence15 in 6 matches1.351.17
    The “Kept” column is the result of shrinkage towards the mean: weight = P / (P + 6), i.e. 0.50 for SC Paderborn 07 and 0.50 for Hamburger SV. The rest of the weight goes to the league average. This is what stops a lone 5-0 from producing an attack at 3.3 times the average — and hence a 95% probability.
  3. Home advantage (γ). Measured on the league itself: 2.23 goal scored on average by the host against 1.48 by the visitor, over the 44 fixtures present in each team's last 5 matches. Raw ratio 1.51; shrunk towards 1 (weight 0.42, on the log of the ratio) then capped at 1.25 → γ = 1.19. Shrinkage goes towards 1, i.e. no advantage at all: while the sample is small, the model does not assert a home advantage it cannot measure.
  4. Venue correction, specific to each team. Drawn from the home/away split: points per match at the venue concerned are compared to points per match over all fixtures, with stronger shrinkage (weight = P / (P + 8)) and a bound of ±12%.
    SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.00 pts/match versus 0.83 overall over 3 matches → ×1.055
    Hamburger SV away: 1.00 pts/match versus 1.50 overall over 3 matches → ×0.909
  5. Expected goals. One side's attack is set against the other's defence. γ applies to the host only: applying it the other way round too would count the home advantage twice.
    λSC Paderborn 07 = 1.86 × 0.72 × 1.17 × 1.19 × 1.055 = 1.98
    λHamburger SV = 1.86 × 0.77 × 0.90 × 0.909 = 1.17
  6. Poisson grid. Probability of every exact score from 0-0 to 8-8, assuming the two goal totals are independent, then adding up the cells: home win 56.1%, draw 21.7%, away win 22.3% — displayed rounded to whole numbers so that they add up to exactly 100. Most likely exact score in the grid: 1-1 (only 9.9%, which says enough about how unpredictable an exact score is).
Limits of this model — they are not anecdotal.
  • It only knows goals and a venue. Neither absences, suspensions, line-ups, fatigue, stakes, weather nor club context enter the calculation — while the other tabs of this page show that they matter.
  • The assumption that the two goal totals are independent is false in reality: it slightly underestimates tight scores, hence the draw.
  • γ is measured over a rolling window (each team's last 5 matches), not over the whole season.
  • The shrinkage constants (6, 60, 8) and the bounds are choices, not measurements. They were tuned to be cautious early in the season; they were not calibrated on a results history, as none is available here.
  • No after-the-fact evaluation has been made: at this stage, nobody knows whether this model is better or worse calibrated than another.
What other sources say
No external source has been collected for this match. That is the normal state: readings are taken by hand, and an empty box is better than an unverified figure.
This block shows probability estimates, not predictions, and carries no advisory value. The in-house estimate is the result of a formula applied to a small sample; the figures from external sources are reproduced as they were collected, without their method having been verified.

The full squad

The professional squad by position, captain marked with an armband.

Goalkeepers
  • Markus Schubert
  • Nahuel Noll
  • Florian Pruhs
Defenders
  • Ruben Müller
  • Jonah Sticker
  • Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant
  • Felix GötzeC
  • Jano ter Horst
  • Mattes Hansen
  • Niklas Mohr
  • Tjark Scheller
  • Clemens Lippmann
  • Marcel Hoffmeier
  • Tristan Zobel
Midfielders
  • Santiago Castaneda
  • Tom Baack
  • Luka Duric
  • Laurin Curda
  • Raphael Obermair
  • Sebastian Klaas
  • Laurin Ulrich
  • Timur Gayret
Forwards
  • Oliver Batista Meier
  • Kennedy Okpala
  • Sven Michel
  • Albert Millgramm
  • Steffen Tigges
  • Stefano Marino
  • Lasse Eickel
  • Gabriel Vidovic
  • Deniz Zeitler
  • Marvin Pieringer
Squad last verified on 31 Aug 2026 — source: scp07.de (official professional squad), cross-checked with the bundesliga.com list of 2026/27 captains and the Neue Westfälische article of 28/08/2026.

What has been said recently

Chronological feed of verified information about the club.

rss17 Oct 2026
Bundesliga: Bremen only draw against Paderborn
Source: Sportschau
rss17 Oct 2026
BVB frighteningly harmless – Paderborn shocks Bremen twice – Mainz leads on Schalke
Source: Welt Sport
rss17 Oct 2026
Werder Bremen - Paderborn, live - 124; Bundesliga
rss10 Oct 2026
Bundesliga: Stuttgart beats Paderborn
Source: Sportschau
rss10 Oct 2026
Paderborn - Stuttgart, live - 124; Bundesliga
rss10 Oct 2026
Watch live: SC Paderborn 07 against VfB Stuttgart - Bundesliga
Source: Sportschau
Institutional3 Sep 2026
The new ballot-based ticket allocation system, called Tixx Select, proved itself for the first Bundesliga home fixture against Freiburg: almost every member who applied got a seat and the members' quota was not even exhausted, opening access to season-ticket holders from the following Wednesday. The petition launched by supporters against the change gathered only 122 signatures in a week, far short of the 1,000 target. Around 4,000 tickets are available per match once VIP and away quotas are removed, against close to 9,500 season tickets sold.
Injury3 Sep 2026
The injury list is heavy before Freiburg's visit: Timur Gayret is out long term after a cruciate ligament rupture, Sebastian Klaas misses around four weeks, Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant several weeks, while Sven Michel and Lasse Eickel are still in fitness rehabilitation.
Source: LigaInsider
Supporters2 Sep 2026
The club has launched “Wo ist der Pfau?”, a discreet alert system intended to protect spectators from harassment, discrimination and violence at the stadium. Anyone in difficulty can ask that question of any member of staff so that a trained German Red Cross team intervenes; quiet spaces, child-height signage, an emergency number and QR codes complete the system.
Club2 Sep 2026
Sporting director Sebastian Lange took stock of the window: “We were able to complete some transfers quickly,” before closing longer-running deals such as Rayan Philippe's, signed on the last day. He names Laurin Ulrich, Gabriel Vidović, Marvin Pieringer and Rayan Philippe as the summer's additions and justifies Kennedy Okpala's loan to Dynamo Dresden by the search for playing time. He calls the period “demanding but very rewarding”.
Club2 Sep 2026
The U21s were held to a 2-2 draw at Siegen after conceding late, a few days before the professional squad's first Bundesliga home fixture.
Institutional1 Sep 2026
A change on the board: Carsten Linnemann is leaving the club's vice-presidency following his appointment as a federal minister. He is replaced by Frank Schürmann, a member of the supervisory board since 2019 and an executive at the Mahrenholz Fenster Holding group. President Thomas Sagel praised “a dedicated commitment in recent years”.
Transfers1 Sep 2026
Forward Rayan Philippe was loaned by Hamburger SV on deadline day, an attacking addition awaited to support the club's return to the Bundesliga.
Transfers1 Sep 2026
The summer window closed with the arrivals of Gabriel Vidović, from Zagreb, and Luka Đurić from Hoffenheim, while Kennedy Okpala was loaned to Dresden.
Injury31 Aug 2026
A painful return for Marvin Pieringer: back as an SC Paderborn player, he broke his nose in only his second training session. He nonetheless started the season opener at Mainz, wearing a protective mask.
Result31 Aug 2026
The German press praised the promoted side's courage: Mainz grew desperate against a bold Paderborn, unable to convert their chances despite Phillip Tietz hitting the bar.
Source: Sportschau
News last verified on 17 Oct 2026. Sources: sports press (L'Équipe, Le Parisien, Foot Mercato, regional press…) and official club websites — see the link on each item.
Editorial content (playing style, mood, absences, external prediction sources) last verified on 3 Sep 2026. The standings/form data above are refreshed automatically — as is the 1/X/2 estimate, recomputed on every view.