The summary of this page: estimated level of play, form trend and qualitative verdict. For the details, head to the other tabs.
Editors' ratings
2/10
Attack
7/10
Defence
1/10
Form
1/10
Confidence / mood
Current risk:—
32nd with 0 pts from 2 matches: 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats.
1 goals scored, 4 conceded.
Although he did not act for Napoli visiting Venezia, Noa Lang is again subject to conversation in Italy. The 27-year-old left was not happy that he could not fill in on Saturday during the 1-0 defeat at the Serie A fence.
The pressure on Massimiliano Allegri is already increasing as Napoli has experienced the worst season start in 25 years. The experienced trainer tries to keep his head cool, after the 1-0 defeat on visit to gate closer Venezia in the Serie A.
Match-by-match results, record and rhythm of the current season.
Latest matches
Lvs Villarreal CF (A) · 1-3
Lvs Arsenal FC (H) · 0-1
LL
1 scored / 4 conceded over 2 matches played
Rest: 5 days since the last match · 1 match played in the last 15 days
Home form
0W - 0D - 1L
Away form
0W - 0D - 1L
Statistics
Computed from this season's scores, every time the page is shown.
Goals scored per match
0.5
Goals conceded per match
2.0
At home
0 scored · 1 conceded in 1 match
Away
1 scored · 3 conceded in 1 match
Over 2.5 goals
1 of 2
Both teams score
1 of 2
Clean sheets
0 of 2
Failed to score
1 of 2
Cumulative points vs league average
Not enough matchdays recorded yet for this curve — history builds up with every standings refresh.
How Napoli play
System, playing identity, and what sets the team apart at both ends of the pitch.
Playing identity
Preferred system
4-3-3
Philosophy
Attacking strengths
Defensive solidity
Pressing
Transitions
Strength
Weakness
The mood around the club, and who is missing
Internal climate, relationship with the supporters, and known absences before the next match.
Mood
Squad confidence
The home defeat to Como cooled the mood, but the club went back to work at Castel Volturno on 1 September after a single day off, with a programme built around possession and small-sided games. Captain Di Lorenzo's extension until 2030, announced on 2 September, provided a signal of stability just as the injury list is refusing to clear. McTominay's operation, which deprives Allegri of his box-to-box midfielder until 11 October, forces a rethink of the midfield balance forty-eight hours before a trip to San Siro. Beukema's return in defence is the week's only good medical news.
Coach / players / board relationship
The bond between captain and institution has just been sealed publicly: in confirming his extension until 2030, Giovanni Di Lorenzo thanked Aurelio De Laurentiis, sporting director Giovanni Manna and his agent Mario Giuffredi by name, and spoke of a “special day” that ties him “still more closely to this club, this city and these supporters”. That sequence contrasts with the frustration expressed at the end of the window by a head coach who did not get the third forward he hoped for. Allegri, for his part, avoided any public row and focused on preparing for a schedule he describes as demanding on three fronts.
Mood with the supporters
The 2026-27 campaign is the club's centenary, and Allegri himself placed the season under that banner by promising “a fine and demanding year” to be contested across three competitions. That identity argument comes at the right moment, after the disappointment of the first home game of the Allegri era, lost to promoted Como, which drew heavy criticism from part of the kop on social media. Di Lorenzo's extension until 2030, presented by the captain as a promise of “further success” to the tifosi, is clearly intended to rebuild that bond. The trip to San Siro, on Saturday at 18:00, will be the first big occasion of the centenary year.
Pressure on the head coach
The pressure on Allegri is real but contained: two matchdays, one win and one defeat, and already a public debate about the strength of the squad. The coach responded by setting objectives of competitiveness on all three fronts and by naming eight contenders for the scudetto — Inter, Napoli, Milan, Juventus, Roma, Fiorentina, Como and Atalanta — a way of widening the field of responsibility. He will have to manage without McTominay for more than a month, without Buongiorno until January, and will face the press on Friday 4 September at 14:00 before the trip to the reigning champions. A result at San Siro would be enough for the tension to subside.
Club objectives
Allegri set out a threefold objective for the centenary year: “holding up” in Serie A, in the Champions League and in the Coppa Italia. On the European stage, he made it a priority to come through the league phase in the best possible shape for the knockout rounds, and the club submitted a UEFA list of twenty-three players including McTominay and Højlund. Internally, what he mainly expects from Rasmus Højlund is an improvement in his goal tally. The captain's extension until 2030 fits a logic of continuity the board openly embraces.
Recent internal tensions
The most delicate subject remains the gap between the head coach's expectations and the choices made at the end of the window, a third top-level forward never having arrived. Added to that is a heavily penalising injury list: McTominay operated on for a heart condition and out until 11 October, Buongiorno sidelined until January, absences that weaken two key areas. The immediate schedule, with Inter and then Arsenal, leaves little margin for error before the discontent of part of the tifosi, already visible after the Como defeat, returns. No open conflict between Allegri and the board has been reported, however.
Absences
InjuredScott McTominay — Operated on in England to treat a cardiac arrhythmia; out against Inter, Fiorentina, Bologna and Arsenal, with a return announced for 11 October.
InjuredAlessandro Buongiorno — Meniscus injury; Allegri has confirmed he will be out until January.
BackSam Beukema — Recovered and available again in defence for the trip to San Siro.
Before kick-off
What to know before the next match: statistical form, qualitative analysis, and a computed estimate of the 1/X/2 probabilities.
Next match
Napoli — Bodø/Glimt
At homeTuesday 20 October at 21:00Matchday 3
In 2 days. Kick-off time confirmed by the league. Paris time · football-data.org fixtures.
No preview found for this fixture. The press mostly covers the big games, and usually the day before.
Prediction
EstimateNapoli — Bodø/Glimt
51 %
1 · Napoli
21 %
X · draw
28 %
2 · Bodø/Glimt
In-house calculation, from this page's standings data alone: 2 matches played by Napoli, 2 matches by Bodø/Glimt. Confidence: low
The calculation rests on only 2 matches per team. Shrinkage deliberately pulls the estimate close to a neutral split: it barely tells the two teams apart.
The formula, in plain words — with this match's figures
League average. 141 goals scored over 68 team-matches played (34 teams taken into account), i.e. μ = 2.07 goal scored per team per match. This is the reference point: everything that follows is expressed relative to it.
Attacking and defensive strengths. Goals scored (or conceded) per match, divided by μ. 1.00 = exactly average; in defence, above 1.00 means “concedes more than average”.
TeamGoalsRawKept
Napoli — attack1 in 2 matches0.240.81
Napoli — defence4 in 2 matches0.960.99
Bodø/Glimt — attack1 in 2 matches0.240.81
Bodø/Glimt — defence5 in 2 matches1.211.05
The “Kept” column is the result of shrinkage towards the mean: weight = P / (P + 6), i.e. 0.25 for Napoli and 0.25 for Bodø/Glimt. The rest of the weight goes to the league average. This is what stops a lone 5-0 from producing an attack at 3.3 times the average — and hence a 95% probability.
Home advantage (γ). Measured on the league itself: 2.47 goal scored on average by the host against 1.68 by the visitor, over the 34 fixtures present in each team's last 5 matches. Raw ratio 1.47; shrunk towards 1 (weight 0.36, on the log of the ratio) then capped at 1.25 → γ = 1.15. Shrinkage goes towards 1, i.e. no advantage at all: while the sample is small, the model does not assert a home advantage it cannot measure.
Venue correction, specific to each team. Drawn from the home/away split: points per match at the venue concerned are compared to points per match over all fixtures, with stronger shrinkage (weight = P / (P + 8)) and a bound of ±12%.
Napoli at home: 0.00 pts/match versus 0.00 overall over 1 match → ×1.000 Bodø/Glimt away: 0.00 pts/match versus 1.50 overall over 1 match → ×0.889
Expected goals. One side's attack is set against the other's defence. γ applies to the host only: applying it the other way round too would count the home advantage twice.
Poisson grid. Probability of every exact score from 0-0 to 8-8, assuming the two goal totals are independent, then adding up the cells: home win 50.5%, draw 21.4%, away win 28.1% — displayed rounded to whole numbers so that they add up to exactly 100. Most likely exact score in the grid: 2-1 (only 9.1%, which says enough about how unpredictable an exact score is).
Limits of this model — they are not anecdotal.
It only knows goals and a venue. Neither absences, suspensions, line-ups, fatigue, stakes, weather nor club context enter the calculation — while the other tabs of this page show that they matter.
The assumption that the two goal totals are independent is false in reality: it slightly underestimates tight scores, hence the draw.
γ is measured over a rolling window (each team's last 5 matches), not over the whole season.
The shrinkage constants (6, 60, 8) and the bounds are choices, not measurements. They were tuned to be cautious early in the season; they were not calibrated on a results history, as none is available here.
No after-the-fact evaluation has been made: at this stage, nobody knows whether this model is better or worse calibrated than another.
What other sources say
No external source has been collected for this match. That is the normal state: readings are taken by hand, and an empty box is better than an unverified figure.
This block shows probability estimates, not predictions, and carries no advisory value. The in-house estimate is the result of a formula applied to a small sample; the figures from external sources are reproduced as they were collected, without their method having been verified.
The full squad
The professional squad by position, captain marked with an armband.
Squad not documented for this team yet.
What has been said recently
Chronological feed of verified information about the club.
rss18 Oct 2026
"Spannings around Noa Lang run on: Angry assailant stops warming up at Napoli'
Scott McTominay is in England to undergo a procedure to treat his cardiac arrhythmia; he will miss the league matches against Inter, Fiorentina and Bologna as well as the Champions League fixture against Arsenal, his return being announced for 11 October against Frosinone.
Allegri will speak to the press on Friday 4 September at 14:00 before Inter v Napoli, scheduled for Saturday 5 September at 18:00 at the Meazza. A switch to a 4-2-3-1 with De Bruyne in support of the striker is being considered to make up for McTominay's absence, while Sam Beukema is announced as recovered and available again in defence.
Giovanni Di Lorenzo has officially extended his contract until 2030: “Today is a special day because I am tying myself still more closely to this club, this city and these supporters,” said the captain, who thanked Aurelio De Laurentiis, sporting director Giovanni Manna and his agent Mario Giuffredi, and said he wanted to “bring the tifosi more success”.
To replace McTominay in midfield against Inter, Sky Sport, through Francesco Modugno, put forward the name of Antonio Vergara, whose chances of starting have risen sharply.
After a day off granted by Allegri the day after the defeat to Como, the squad went back to work at Castel Volturno on 1 September: activation, possession-phase drills, athletic work and small-sided games according to the club's statement.
Napoli invested around €71m, with Rasmus Højlund from Manchester United for €44m, Alisson Santos from Sporting CP for €16.5m, goalkeeper Vanja Milinković-Savić from Torino for €6m and Benoît Badiashile on loan from Chelsea.
Cyril Ngonge and Michael Folorunsho have left Napoli for Monza, while Mazzocchi and Juan Jesus were reported close to moves to Venezia and Cajuste to Málaga in the closing stages of the window.
News last verified on 18 Oct 2026. Sources: sports press (L'Équipe, Le Parisien, Foot Mercato, regional press…) and official club websites — see the link on each item.
Editorial content (playing style, mood, absences, external prediction sources) last verified on 3 Sep 2026. The standings/form data above are refreshed automatically — as is the 1/X/2 estimate, recomputed on every view.
