2026/2027 league phase

Champions League

Club page
Champions League · Club page
VfB Stuttgart
Head coach: Sebastian Hoeneß · 4-2-3-1
Rank
4th
Pts
6
P
2
Form
🔥 Excellent

The essentials at a glance

The summary of this page: estimated level of play, form trend and qualitative verdict. For the details, head to the other tabs.

Editors' ratings
9/10
Attack
10/10
Defence
10/10
Form
10/10
Confidence / mood
Current risk:—

4th with 6 pts from 2 matches: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 defeats.

6 goals scored, 1 conceded.

Among them is the duel between the German Stuttgart and the Atletico of Madrid that will be played in the Arena stadium of the German city.

Mundo Deportivo · 18 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

The Hamburger SV wins 1-0 against VfB Stuttgart and continues its upswing. Miro Muheim decides a Bundesliga game for the second time in succession – and with a special shot.

Welt Sport · 18 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

After the late 0:1 at the HSV, captain Deniz Undav takes the VfB Stuttgart into duty. Before the Atlético cracker on Tuesday, the Swabians are missing the flow.

Sportschau · 18 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

Although HSV won the third league victory against Stuttgart in series, coach Merlin Polzin did not want to fall into euphoria afterwards. Instead, he also recalled the difficult early weeks of the season.

kicker · 17 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

How the team has played recently

Match-by-match results, record and rhythm of the current season.

Latest matches
Wvs ŠK Slovan Bratislava (A) · 3-0
Wvs Viking FK (H) · 3-1
WW
6 scored / 1 conceded over 2 matches played
Rest: 4 days since the last match · 1 match played in the last 15 days
Home form
1W - 0D - 0L
Away form
1W - 0D - 0L
Statistics

Computed from this season's scores, every time the page is shown.

Goals scored per match
3.0
Goals conceded per match
0.5
At home
3 scored · 1 conceded in 1 match
Away
3 scored · 0 conceded in 1 match
Over 2.5 goals
2 of 2
Both teams score
1 of 2
Clean sheets
1 of 2
Failed to score
0 of 2
Cumulative points vs league average

Not enough matchdays recorded yet for this curve — history builds up with every standings refresh.

How VfB Stuttgart play

System, playing identity, and what sets the team apart at both ends of the pitch.

Playing identity
Preferred system
4-2-3-1
Philosophy
Attacking strengths
Defensive solidity
Pressing
Transitions
Strength
Weakness

The mood around the club, and who is missing

Internal climate, relationship with the supporters, and known absences before the next match.

Mood
Squad confidence
The opening 1-5 hammering in Munich left its mark, with Fabian Wohlgemuth himself calling the result “depressing” while Sebastian Hoeneß argued for “improving week by week”. VfB open matchday 2 as early as Friday 4 September against Cologne, provisionally bottom of the table with zero points. The head coach's personal record against the Rhinelanders, seven wins and a draw in eight matches, is the main reason for optimism. A very solid pre-season and a 4-0 in the cup are also a reminder that the attacking potential is intact.
Coach / players / board relationship
The board made bold calls in selling Chema Andrés to Brighton and Lazar Jovanović to Udinese, and is now considering a loan for its most expensive signing, Badredine Bouanani. It did, however, manage to keep its two most sought-after players: Jamie Leweling turned down AS Roma and Bilal El Khannouss rejected a Saudi offer of around €40m. That double resistance confirms the stated line, selling to fund investment without letting key players go cheaply. No public friction is reported between Sebastian Hoeneß and Fabian Wohlgemuth.
Mood with the supporters
The environment remains broadly supportive, fed by the return to the Champions League and a draw the local press considers “entirely manageable”. The opening rout in Munich was received as a disappointment, even if it was largely expected. The visit of Cologne to open the matchday, on a Friday night at the MHPArena, should allow the team to get going again in front of their own crowd. No organised protest or banner has been reported.
Pressure on the head coach
The pressure on Sebastian Hoeneß is low. He is credited with transforming the club and is coming off a 4th place that qualified them for the Champions League. No source consulted suggests his position is in question after matchday 1. His excellent record against Cologne further reduces the risk of starting the season with no points from two games.
Club objectives
The verified objective remains to aim for Champions League qualification again after 4th place in 2025-26, while coping with both domestic and European demands. The club is in the Champions League league phase, whose opening round is scheduled from 8 to 10 September, as well as the DFB-Pokal. In the short term, the urgency is to get off the mark on Friday 4 September against Cologne. No more precise or numerical official statement could be verified.
Recent internal tensions
No dressing-room tension is reported. The point of friction remains financial: the club still depends on sales to fund the renovation of its Mercedesstraße headquarters and the purchase of the Carl-Benz-Center. Bilal El Khannouss, long identified as the most likely candidate to leave and described as unhappy with his playing time at the end of last season, ultimately turned down Al-Ittihad and started the season in the first eleven. The only situation still open is that of Badredine Bouanani, allowed to leave on loan after being left out of the squad for the cup.
Absences
InjuredDan-Axel Zagadou — Hamstring injury sustained against Everton; absence estimated at four to six weeks, with no new information as of 1 September.
InjuredJustin Diehl — Hamstring injury; around five weeks out.
InjuredDennis Seimen — Goalkeeper with a hamstring injury; around five weeks out.
InjuredNikolas Nartey — Muscle injury; announced as unavailable for the home game against Cologne.
InjuredJeremy Arévalo — In fitness rehabilitation; already missed the DFB-Pokal round.
DoubtfulLorenz Assignon — Shoulder injury; very close to rejoining full team training as of 1 September.
DoubtfulChris Führich — Status uncertain before the home game against Cologne.

Before kick-off

What to know before the next match: statistical form, qualitative analysis, and a computed estimate of the 1/X/2 probabilities.

Next match

VfB Stuttgart — Atlético de Madrid

At homeTuesday 20 October at 21:00Matchday 3
In 2 days. Kick-off time confirmed by the league. Paris time · football-data.org fixtures.

Prediction, odds and form of both teams →

What the press says
Prediction
EstimateVfB Stuttgart — Atlético de Madrid
58 %
1 · VfB Stuttgart
20 %
X · draw
22 %
2 · Atlético de Madrid
In-house calculation, from this page's standings data alone: 2 matches played by VfB Stuttgart, 2 matches by Atlético de Madrid. Confidence: low
The calculation rests on only 2 matches per team. Shrinkage deliberately pulls the estimate close to a neutral split: it barely tells the two teams apart.
The formula, in plain words — with this match's figures
  1. League average. 141 goals scored over 68 team-matches played (34 teams taken into account), i.e. μ = 2.07 goal scored per team per match. This is the reference point: everything that follows is expressed relative to it.
  2. Attacking and defensive strengths. Goals scored (or conceded) per match, divided by μ. 1.00 = exactly average; in defence, above 1.00 means “concedes more than average”.
    TeamGoalsRawKept
    VfB Stuttgart — attack6 in 2 matches1.451.11
    VfB Stuttgart — defence1 in 2 matches0.240.81
    Atlético de Madrid — attack3 in 2 matches0.720.93
    Atlético de Madrid — defence2 in 2 matches0.480.87
    The “Kept” column is the result of shrinkage towards the mean: weight = P / (P + 6), i.e. 0.25 for VfB Stuttgart and 0.25 for Atlético de Madrid. The rest of the weight goes to the league average. This is what stops a lone 5-0 from producing an attack at 3.3 times the average — and hence a 95% probability.
  3. Home advantage (γ). Measured on the league itself: 2.47 goal scored on average by the host against 1.68 by the visitor, over the 34 fixtures present in each team's last 5 matches. Raw ratio 1.47; shrunk towards 1 (weight 0.36, on the log of the ratio) then capped at 1.25 → γ = 1.15. Shrinkage goes towards 1, i.e. no advantage at all: while the sample is small, the model does not assert a home advantage it cannot measure.
  4. Venue correction, specific to each team. Drawn from the home/away split: points per match at the venue concerned are compared to points per match over all fixtures, with stronger shrinkage (weight = P / (P + 8)) and a bound of ±12%.
    VfB Stuttgart at home: 3.00 pts/match versus 3.00 overall over 1 match → ×1.000
    Atlético de Madrid away: 0.00 pts/match versus 1.50 overall over 1 match → ×0.889
  5. Expected goals. One side's attack is set against the other's defence. γ applies to the host only: applying it the other way round too would count the home advantage twice.
    λVfB Stuttgart = 2.07 × 1.11 × 0.87 × 1.15 × 1.000 = 2.31
    λAtlético de Madrid = 2.07 × 0.93 × 0.81 × 0.889 = 1.39
  6. Poisson grid. Probability of every exact score from 0-0 to 8-8, assuming the two goal totals are independent, then adding up the cells: home win 58.0%, draw 19.6%, away win 22.4% — displayed rounded to whole numbers so that they add up to exactly 100. Most likely exact score in the grid: 2-1 (only 9.2%, which says enough about how unpredictable an exact score is).
Limits of this model — they are not anecdotal.
  • It only knows goals and a venue. Neither absences, suspensions, line-ups, fatigue, stakes, weather nor club context enter the calculation — while the other tabs of this page show that they matter.
  • The assumption that the two goal totals are independent is false in reality: it slightly underestimates tight scores, hence the draw.
  • γ is measured over a rolling window (each team's last 5 matches), not over the whole season.
  • The shrinkage constants (6, 60, 8) and the bounds are choices, not measurements. They were tuned to be cautious early in the season; they were not calibrated on a results history, as none is available here.
  • No after-the-fact evaluation has been made: at this stage, nobody knows whether this model is better or worse calibrated than another.
What other sources say
No external source has been collected for this match. That is the normal state: readings are taken by hand, and an empty box is better than an unverified figure.
This block shows probability estimates, not predictions, and carries no advisory value. The in-house estimate is the result of a formula applied to a small sample; the figures from external sources are reproduced as they were collected, without their method having been verified.

The full squad

The professional squad by position, captain marked with an armband.

Squad not documented for this team yet.

What has been said recently

Chronological feed of verified information about the club.

rss18 Oct 2026
Serdar Gözübüyük will be the referee of the Stuttgart - Atlético de Madrid
Source: Mundo Deportivo
rss18 Oct 2026
"No top team" - VfB Stuttgart lacks the flow
Source: Sportschau
rss17 Oct 2026
The Stuttgart, defeated and without goal before receiving the Atletico
Source: Mundo Deportivo
rss17 Oct 2026
Muheim as a match winner: Hamburger SV defeats VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga
Source: Sportschau
rss17 Oct 2026
Dortmund wants first place back, HSV welcomes Stuttgart
Source: Welt Sport
rss17 Oct 2026
Now live - BVB at Union, Stuttgart at HSV
Source: Sportschau
Injury3 Sep 2026
Stuttgart's injury list has grown heavier still: Justin Diehl and Dennis Seimen both have hamstring injuries and will miss around five weeks, Nikolas Nartey is in danger of being ruled out, Dan-Axel Zagadou remains out for several weeks and Jeremy Arévalo is continuing his fitness rehabilitation. Chris Führich is also doubtful.
Source: LigaInsider
Club3 Sep 2026
Badredine Bouanani, signed from Nice last summer for €17m including bonuses, has been allowed to leave on loan. Left out of the squad for the cup tie against Rostock despite a serious pre-season, he is attracting interest from German, French and Scottish clubs; a loan now looks the most likely outcome.
Source: Fussballdaten
Contract2 Sep 2026
Bilal El Khannouss turned down an offer from Al-Ittihad of around €40m, submitted on Tuesday evening, explaining that he had no interest in the Saudi league. Signed from Leicester City in July 2026 for €15m, the 22-year-old Moroccan had also attracted Newcastle, Tottenham, Everton, Crystal Palace and Galatasaray, with VfB setting his price above €65m.
Source: Get German Football News
Club2 Sep 2026
VfB open matchday 2 at home to 1. FC Köln on Friday 4 September at the MHPArena, provisionally bottom with zero points. Sebastian Hoeneß has a personal record of seven wins and a draw in eight meetings with Cologne. Nikolas Nartey, with a muscle problem, and Lorenz Assignon, troubled by his shoulder, are announced as unavailable.
Source: Yahoo Sports
Injury1 Sep 2026
Medical update before the restart: Lorenz Assignon is “very close to rejoining full” team training after his shoulder injury, while no new information has been given on Dan-Axel Zagadou, whose absence is still estimated at four to six weeks after the injury he sustained against Everton.
Source: Comunio
Transfers1 Sep 2026
Lazar Jovanović was transferred to Udinese for a fee of up to €8m on deadline day, after Chema Andrés's move to Brighton.
Source: Fussballdaten
Transfers1 Sep 2026
The summer window closed with the arrivals of Grischa Prömel from Hoffenheim, winger Leo Sauer from Feyenoord and forward Dženan Pejčinović, signed from Wolfsburg.
Source: Bundesliga.com
Other29 Aug 2026
VfB open the season with a 1-5 defeat at Bayern Munich: Vagnoman equalises before scoring an own goal for 1-3; it is the club's 7th consecutive competitive defeat to Bayern. Hoeneß wants to “improve week by week”, Fabian Wohlgemuth calls the result “depressing”.
Source: Wochenblatt-Reporter
Result28 Aug 2026
VfB took a hiding on their opening outing: 5-1 at the Allianz Arena against Bayern Munich. Josha Vagnoman had in fact equalised with a powerful strike (52) before scoring an own goal six minutes later, slipping on the wet surface. Four Stuttgart players were booked.
Source: Fussballdaten
Institutional27 Aug 2026
Champions League league phase draw in Monaco: VfB will face Inter Milan, PSV Eindhoven, Galatasaray and Slovan Bratislava away, and Atlético Madrid, Club Bruges, LOSC Lille and Viking Stavanger at home. The league phase begins between 8 and 10 September 2026.
Source: Stuttgarter Zeitung
News last verified on 18 Oct 2026. Sources: sports press (L'Équipe, Le Parisien, Foot Mercato, regional press…) and official club websites — see the link on each item.
Editorial content (playing style, mood, absences, external prediction sources) last verified on 3 Sep 2026. The standings/form data above are refreshed automatically — as is the 1/X/2 estimate, recomputed on every view.