2026/2027 season

Ligue 1

Team page
Ligue 1 · Team page
Toulouse FC
Head coach: Jens Berthel Askou · 3-4-3
Rank
9th
Pts
9
P
7
Form
🟡 Average

The essentials at a glance

The summary of this page: estimated level of play, form trend and qualitative verdict. For the details, head to the other tabs.

Editors' ratings
7/10
Attack
5/10
Defence
5/10
Form
5/10
Confidence / mood
Current risk:High

9th with 9 pts from 7 matches: 2 wins, 3 draws, 2 defeats.

12 goals scored, 11 conceded.

Battus 3-0 by the TFC, the Manceaux recognized the technical and physical superiority of the Toulousans. But the promoted ones are not shot down.

RMC Sport — Ligue 1 · 17 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

Winning on his lawn, against Toulouse FC on Day 7 of Ligue 1, Patrick Videira coach of Le Mans FC spoke at a press conference about his opponent.

RMC Sport — Ligue 1 · 16 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

Despite their defeat against the French champions, the Manceaux showed that they had the resources to compete with the best teams in the championship. Back in front of their audience, they now hope to turn this beautiful resistance into a victory against the Toulousans. Here is all the information to follow this poster live.

RMC Sport — Ligue 1 · 16 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

He did it against the Toulouse in Ligue 1.

Mundo Deportivo · 17 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

How the team has played recently

Match-by-match results, record and rhythm of the current season.

Latest matches
Wvs Le Mans FC (A) · 3-0
Dvs AS Monaco FC (A) · 2-2
Wvs Le Havre AC (H) · 3-2
Dvs FC Lorient (A) · 2-2
Lvs Lille OSC (H) · 0-1
WWDDDLL
12 scored / 11 conceded over 7 matches played
Rest: 2 days since the last match · 2 matches played in the last 15 days
Home form
1W - 0D - 2L
Away form
1W - 3D - 0L
Statistics

Computed from this season's scores, every time the page is shown.

Goals scored per match
2.0
Goals conceded per match
1.4
At home
3 scored · 3 conceded in 2 matches
Away
7 scored · 4 conceded in 3 matches
Over 2.5 goals
4 of 5
Both teams score
3 of 5
Clean sheets
1 of 5
Failed to score
1 of 5
Cumulative points vs league average

Not enough matchdays recorded yet for this curve — history builds up with every standings refresh.

How Toulouse FC play

System, playing identity, and what sets the team apart at both ends of the pitch.

Playing identity
Preferred system
3-4-3
Philosophy
A profile unknown to the French general public, praised for the quality of football produced at Motherwell (Scotland); a gamble on attractive football.
Attacking strengths
No goals scored in the 1st match.
Defensive solidity
2 goals conceded against Lyon.
Pressing
Not precisely documented.
Transitions
Not precisely documented.
StrengthAn attractive playing philosophy praised during his Scottish spell (2 manager of the month awards, European qualification secured).
WeaknessAdaptation to Ligue 1 still to be confirmed for a profile completely unknown in France.

The mood around the club, and who is missing

Internal climate, relationship with the supporters, and known absences before the next match.

Mood
Squad confidence
TFC open matchday 3 by hosting Lille on Thursday night at the Stadium, without having won yet this season. Jens Berthel Askou promised a spectacular match between two teams that press high, while identifying the problem himself: efficiency in the final third. Toulouse's squad is the second youngest in the league, which partly explains the inconsistency seen in the first two matchdays. Eight signings arrived this summer, three of them in the very last days, and the staff still has to integrate them mid-competition.
Coach / players / board relationship
Askou remains a gamble the Toulouse board embraces, having backed him with heavy recruitment approved by president Olivier Cloarec and sporting director Viktor Bezhani. Both executives spoke personally to present Niko Sigur, the summer's eighth signing. The club has also looked after its women's team, promoted to the Arkema Première Ligue, with one last international arrival. No sign of nerves appears in the internal communications, despite the absence of a win.
Mood with the supporters
Curiosity still dominates around a head coach unknown to the wider French public and a largely renewed squad. Opening the matchday on a Thursday night at home, against a LOSC side in form, gives the Stadium a showcase. The women's team's promotion to the top flight, thirteen years on, is another reason for the Toulouse public to turn out. No protest movement has been reported.
Pressure on the head coach
It remains contained but expectation is rising: two matches, no wins, and a head coach's message that itself points to a lack of efficiency. Askou chose to praise the opposition rather than excuse himself, which reflects undiminished confidence on his part. The club backed him to the end of the window with eight arrivals. A defeat on Thursday would, however, put TFC in the bottom half before the international break.
Club objectives
The club is aiming for stability in mid-table while backing youth: an average age of 22.7, the second youngest squad in Ligue 1. Recruitment has strengthened every area, with Casper Tengstedt, Niko Sigur and Mathis Amougou in the final days. The women's team, second-division champions, are discovering the Arkema Première Ligue and were strengthened to the last. The immediate priority is converting chances, without which the style of play will not produce points.
Recent internal tensions
No internal tension reported. Some uncertainty remains over Yann Gboho's situation, reported by a press pick-up as being left out of the squad but in fact present in the official list published by the club.
Absences
DoubtfulNon documenté précisément pour ce match — No reliable list of injured/suspended players could be confirmed for matchday 1.

Before kick-off

What to know before the next match: statistical form, qualitative analysis, and a computed estimate of the 1/X/2 probabilities.

Next match

Toulouse FC — ES Troyes AC

At homeSaturday 24 October at 17:15Matchday 8
In 6 days. Kick-off time confirmed by the league. Paris time · football-data.org fixtures.

Prediction, odds and form of both teams →

What the press says

No preview found for this fixture. The press mostly covers the big games, and usually the day before.

Prediction
EstimateToulouse FC — ES Troyes AC
58 %
1 · Toulouse FC
21 %
X · draw
21 %
2 · ES Troyes AC
In-house calculation, from this page's standings data alone: 7 matches played by Toulouse FC, 7 matches by ES Troyes AC. Confidence: medium
The formula, in plain words — with this match's figures
  1. League average. 170 goals scored over 116 team-matches played (18 teams taken into account), i.e. μ = 1.47 goal scored per team per match. This is the reference point: everything that follows is expressed relative to it.
  2. Attacking and defensive strengths. Goals scored (or conceded) per match, divided by μ. 1.00 = exactly average; in defence, above 1.00 means “concedes more than average”.
    TeamGoalsRawKept
    Toulouse FC — attack12 in 7 matches1.171.09
    Toulouse FC — defence11 in 7 matches1.071.04
    ES Troyes AC — attack5 in 7 matches0.490.72
    ES Troyes AC — defence16 in 7 matches1.561.30
    The “Kept” column is the result of shrinkage towards the mean: weight = P / (P + 6), i.e. 0.54 for Toulouse FC and 0.54 for ES Troyes AC. The rest of the weight goes to the league average. This is what stops a lone 5-0 from producing an attack at 3.3 times the average — and hence a 95% probability.
  3. Home advantage (γ). Measured on the league itself: 1.61 goal scored on average by the host against 1.30 by the visitor, over the 46 fixtures present in each team's last 5 matches. Raw ratio 1.24; shrunk towards 1 (weight 0.42, on the log of the ratio) then capped at 1.25 → γ = 1.10. Shrinkage goes towards 1, i.e. no advantage at all: while the sample is small, the model does not assert a home advantage it cannot measure.
  4. Venue correction, specific to each team. Drawn from the home/away split: points per match at the venue concerned are compared to points per match over all fixtures, with stronger shrinkage (weight = P / (P + 8)) and a bound of ±12%.
    Toulouse FC at home: 1.00 pts/match versus 1.29 overall over 3 matches → ×0.939
    ES Troyes AC away: 1.00 pts/match versus 0.57 overall over 3 matches → ×1.120
  5. Expected goals. One side's attack is set against the other's defence. γ applies to the host only: applying it the other way round too would count the home advantage twice.
    λToulouse FC = 1.47 × 1.09 × 1.30 × 1.10 × 0.939 = 2.14
    λES Troyes AC = 1.47 × 0.72 × 1.04 × 1.120 = 1.23
  6. Poisson grid. Probability of every exact score from 0-0 to 8-8, assuming the two goal totals are independent, then adding up the cells: home win 58.1%, draw 20.5%, away win 21.4% — displayed rounded to whole numbers so that they add up to exactly 100. Most likely exact score in the grid: 2-1 (only 9.7%, which says enough about how unpredictable an exact score is).
Limits of this model — they are not anecdotal.
  • It only knows goals and a venue. Neither absences, suspensions, line-ups, fatigue, stakes, weather nor club context enter the calculation — while the other tabs of this page show that they matter.
  • The assumption that the two goal totals are independent is false in reality: it slightly underestimates tight scores, hence the draw.
  • γ is measured over a rolling window (each team's last 5 matches), not over the whole season.
  • The shrinkage constants (6, 60, 8) and the bounds are choices, not measurements. They were tuned to be cautious early in the season; they were not calibrated on a results history, as none is available here.
  • No after-the-fact evaluation has been made: at this stage, nobody knows whether this model is better or worse calibrated than another.
What other sources say
No external source has been collected for this match. That is the normal state: readings are taken by hand, and an empty box is better than an unverified figure.
This block shows probability estimates, not predictions, and carries no advisory value. The in-house estimate is the result of a formula applied to a small sample; the figures from external sources are reproduced as they were collected, without their method having been verified.

The full squad

The professional squad by position, captain marked with an armband.

Goalkeepers
  • Guillaume Restes
  • Mathys Niflore
  • Naïme Saïd Mchindra
  • Théo Collin
Defenders
  • Frédéric Efuele Ngoyala
  • Gaëtan Bakhouche
  • Ismaïl Diallo
  • Mark McKenzie
  • Rasmus NicolaisenC
  • Seny Koumbassa
  • Thibaud-Dorian Garondo
Midfielders
  • Abu Francis
  • Adam El Ouali
  • Alexis Vossah
  • Aron Dønnum
  • Cristian Cásseres
  • Darris Zema
  • Mathis Saka
  • Niklas Schmidt
  • Rafik Messali
Forwards
  • Aymen Amaaouch
  • Ilyas Azizi
  • Jacen Russell-Rowe
  • Julián Vignolo
  • Santiago Hidalgo
  • Wassim Dardake
  • Yann Gboho
Squad last verified on 30 Aug 2026 — source: toulousefc.com (official website).

What has been said recently

Chronological feed of verified information about the club.

rss17 Oct 2026
No worries for Paris FC in Toulouse, Strasbourg overturns Lens on the fifth day of Arkema Première Ligue
Source: L'Équipe
rss16 Oct 2026
Le Mans - Toulouse: on which channel and at what time watch the Ligue 1 game live?
Source: RMC Sport — Ligue 1
rss17 Oct 2026
Toulouse trolle Le Mans after his victory
Source: Foot Mercato
rss17 Oct 2026
Jens Berthel Askou, after Toulouse victory at Le Mans: "We feel like we're starting to get what we think we deserve"
Source: L'Équipe
rss17 Oct 2026
Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse: "It was going too fast," says Gueye
Source: RMC Sport
rss16 Oct 2026
Le Mans 0-3 Toulouse: "It's a very nice team, better than us," says Videira after the defeat
Source: RMC Sport — Ligue 1
Club3 Sep 2026
On 3 September the club published its squad for Lille's visit, with four goalkeepers including Guillaume Restes, eight defenders, eight midfielders and eight forwards among them Yann Gboho, Cristian Cásseres and Aron Dönnum; Jens Berthel Askou and Alexis Vossah spoke to the press.
Source: Site officiel du Toulouse FC
Result3 Sep 2026
TFC open Ligue 1 matchday 3 by hosting LOSC on Thursday 3 September at 20:45 at the Stadium, after a 2-0 defeat to Lyon and a 2-2 draw at Brest.
Source: Titres Presse (Maxifoot)
Club3 Sep 2026
According to Transfermarkt data relayed by the Alsace regional press, Toulouse FC have the second youngest squad in Ligue 1 with an average age of 22.7, behind only Racing Club de Strasbourg.
Source: Alsa'Sports
Head coach2 Sep 2026
At his press conference before Lille's visit, Jens Berthel Askou announced “a very spectacular match to watch” between two teams that take risks and press high, while demanding maximum level and more efficiency in the final third than against Lyon.
Source: Le Petit Lillois
Transfers1 Sep 2026
Niko Sigur, 22, a versatile right-back and midfielder and a Canada international (22 caps, 2 goals), has become Toulouse's eighth summer signing, arriving from Hajduk Split and taking number 14; president Olivier Cloarec praised “a player used to the demands of the very highest level” and sporting director Viktor Bezhani his versatility.
Source: Site officiel du Toulouse FC
Club1 Sep 2026
The women's team, going into their first season in the Arkema Première Ligue after a second-division title and thirteen years away from the top flight, closed their window with Ivory Coast international defender Mariam Diakité, 31, from Fenerbahçe.
Source: Site officiel du Toulouse FC
Transfers1 Sep 2026
TFC also registered the arrivals of Niko Sigur, from Hajduk Split, and Mathis Amougou, on loan from Strasbourg, on the last day of the window.
Source: Orange Sport
Transfers31 Aug 2026
Danish forward Casper Tengstedt, 26, has become Toulouse's sixth summer signing, arriving from Feyenoord; he is reunited with Jens Berthel Askou, with whom he won the Danish second division title in 2022.
Source: Toulouse FC
Result29 Aug 2026
Toulouse FC snatched a draw at Brest (2-2) on matchday 2.
Source: Foot01
Transfers27 Aug 2026
Striker Enzo Faty (19) has been loaned to Royal Francs Borains (Belgium) for the season, without an option to buy.
Source: Site officiel du club
News last verified on 17 Oct 2026. Sources: sports press (L'Équipe, Le Parisien, Foot Mercato, regional press…) and official club websites — see the link on each item.
Editorial content (playing style, mood, absences, external prediction sources) last verified on 3 Sep 2026. The standings/form data above are refreshed automatically — as is the 1/X/2 estimate, recomputed on every view.