Head coach: Carlos Corberán · 5-3-2 (défense à cinq), corrigé en 4 derrière en cours de match
Rank
19th
Pts
6
P
9
Form
🟡 Average
The essentials at a glance
The summary of this page: estimated level of play, form trend and qualitative verdict. For the details, head to the other tabs.
Editors' ratings
2/10
Attack
4/10
Defence
3/10
Form
4/10
Confidence / mood
Current risk:High
19th with 6 pts from 9 matches: 1 win, 3 draws, 5 defeats.
6 goals scored, 15 conceded.
The lions, this time yes, began and ended their duel in front of Valencia. Nor did the temporary threat he planned on the City of Turia prevent the crash from taking place because, among other things, everything was limited to a yellow warning in the later hours.
Javier Aguirre was left with the good sensations that Valencia left in the second part of the score without goals before the Athletic in Mestalla. The Mexican technician, who continues to seek his first victory at the head of the team, recalled that the Valencianists came to the meeting after three consecutive defeats at home and valued the point added on Saturday.
Gorka Guruzeta has had to leave the party before the injured Valencia. The front had jumped into the field at the 63 minute instead of Iñaki Williams and had to leave it in 69 for a worrying knee injury. The donostiar was hurt in a bad gesture, without contact with a rival. He immediately took his hands to his head with a lot of pain. Maroan entered his place.
The Valencia technician highlights the improvement of the team after 0-0 to the Athletic, defends the work of Hugo Duro and asks for patience with the youth of the quarry. Read
Match-by-match results, record and rhythm of the current season.
Latest matches
Dvs Athletic Club (H) · 0-0
Dvs Real Racing Club de Santander (A) · 2-2
Lvs Real Sociedad de Fútbol (H) · 2-3
Wvs Deportivo Alavés (A) · 1-0
Lvs Sevilla FC (A) · 0-1
WDDDLLLLL
6 scored / 15 conceded over 9 matches played
Rest: 1 day since the last match · 2 matches played in the last 15 days
Home form
0W - 2D - 3L
Away form
1W - 1D - 2L
Statistics
Computed from this season's scores, every time the page is shown.
Goals scored per match
1.0
Goals conceded per match
1.2
At home
2 scored · 3 conceded in 2 matches
Away
3 scored · 3 conceded in 3 matches
Over 2.5 goals
2 of 5
Both teams score
2 of 5
Clean sheets
2 of 5
Failed to score
2 of 5
Cumulative points vs league average
Not enough matchdays recorded yet for this curve — history builds up with every standings refresh.
How Valencia CF play
System, playing identity, and what sets the team apart at both ends of the pitch.
Playing identity
Preferred system
5-3-2 (défense à cinq), corrigé en 4 derrière en cours de match
Philosophy
A cautious and reactive approach: Corberán began the first three matchdays with a back five, a low block and little risk-taking, before acknowledging himself that this choice had done the team a disservice at Riazor.
Attacking strengths
The least productive attack in the league at this early stage of the season: just 1 goal scored in 3 matches (Sadiq at Riazor on 30/08), with a 0-0 against Celta and a 0-1 against Betis at Mestalla.
Defensive solidity
4 goals conceded in 3 matchdays, including two own goals by Tárrega and Diakhaby on 30/08; the Valencian press speaks of a structural defensive fragility repeated over three matchdays.
Pressing
Low and not very intense pressing at this early stage of the season: at Riazor, the team dropped too deep and left the initiative to Deportivo for the first twenty minutes, a spell Corberán described as the worst since his arrival.
Transitions
Not reliably documented by the sources consulted as of this date; the match reports mainly stress the slowness of the play (“demasiado lento” against Celta).
StrengthA core of experienced midfielders strengthened this summer (Guido Rodríguez, Aliou Dieng) and the emergence of young players (Ryunosuke Sato, rated 8/10 against Betis by El Desmarque, David Otorbi); Mestalla remains full despite the protests.
WeaknessAn almost total absence of attacking output, repeated individual errors in central defence (Diakhaby returning from seven months of inactivity), and a transfer window judged insufficient by the head coach himself.
The mood around the club, and who is missing
Internal climate, relationship with the supporters, and known absences before the next match.
Mood
Squad confidence
At rock bottom, and the squad assessment published on 3 September does not help: the Valencia press describes a group “unbalanced and weighed down by the injury list”, with only one fully fit centre-back, Tárrega, and one available centre-forward, Hugo Duro. Umar Sadiq, scorer of Valencia's only goal of the season at Riazor, is announced as out until December. One point from three matchdays, an attack with one goal, a defence that bled two own goals: the fundamentals are poor. The one bright spot is Harvey Elliott, presented on 1 September and already integrated into training, who has set himself a target of ten to twenty goals and assists. Barça come to Mestalla on Sunday.
Coach / players / board relationship
Broken between the head coach and the ownership, and time is not repairing it. Carlos Corberán asked for a centre-forward and a centre-back: he ends the window with one fit number nine and one fully fit centre-back. The local press speaks of a “chaotic and directionless” market, after the failure of the Marvin Ducksch deal, Thomas Meunier's refusal and Karl Etta Eyong's. Levante even publicly recounted that Valencia had asked about their forward without ever calling back, a line that sums up the perception of erratic sporting management. Peter Lim's financial context, with his company Thomson Medical cutting losses but down 12% on the market, points to no change of model.
Mood with the supporters
The mood remains one of open rupture between the afición and the ownership: chants of “Corberán dimisión” from the pre-season presentation in early August, boos after the 0-0 against Celta and then the 0-1 against Betis, open mistrust of Peter Lim and Ron Gourlay. The promise of a great team for Mestalla's farewell is experienced as a lie, and Etta Eyong's refusal to come was received as a symptom of the club's lost appeal. Paradoxically, the stadium remains full and the club has launched the “Mestalla és Etern” campaign, with a poster by Lawerta for every home match, the first celebrating Forment's goal against Celta in 1971. Away trips also keep selling out: away ticket sales for Sevilla, on 11 September, opened this week. Sunday's visit of Barça will be the first big test of the atmosphere in this final season at Mestalla.
Pressure on the head coach
Very high and without a safety net. One point from nine, the league's worst attack, a window that covered neither of the two positions requested, and a crowd already calling for his departure before the season kicked off. Corberán himself took responsibility for the choice of a back five at Riazor — “I pick the team, I set the strategy” — and spoke of shame after the 3-1. The schedule offers him no respite: FC Barcelona at Mestalla on Sunday, then the trip to Sevilla on the 11th and Alavés on the 15th. The injury list, with nine players affected, is the only objective argument in his favour.
Club objectives
Officially, climbing the table for the last season at Mestalla, after ninth place in 2025-26; in reality, the club are in the relegation zone after three matchdays. Harvey Elliott has taken up the European objective as his own — “I hope we qualify for Europe, I believe Valencia deserve it” — a message completely at odds with the sporting situation and with summer investment limited to €9m. The real priority is to break the spiral before the run of Barcelona, Sevilla and Alavés. In the background, the club is preparing the move to the Nou Mestalla, of which the campaign paying tribute to the current stadium is the emotional side.
Recent internal tensions
The conflict between the club's environment and the ownership dominates everything in Valencia, and nothing has calmed the week. The squad assessment of 3 September put in black and white what Corberán had been implying: an unbalanced team, one fully fit centre-back, one centre-forward. The successive failures over Ducksch, Meunier and Etta Eyong have established the idea of a board unable to close a deal, with Levante going as far as publicly recounting that Valencia do not call back. The figures from Thomson Medical Group, Peter Lim's company, are a final reminder that the owner is above all managing a listed asset that is falling on the market. The scheduled departure from Mestalla makes every match of the season symbolic.
Absences
InjuredUmar Sadiq — Announced as out until December 2026 by Plaza Deportiva on 3 Sep 2026, having scored Valencia's only goal of the season at Riazor on 30 Aug. Duration not confirmed by the club.
InjuredDiego López — Rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament, return expected at the start of January 2027; still listed among the attacking absentees on 3 Sep 2026.
InjuredSergi Canós — Rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament, return expected at the start of December 2026.
InjuredCopete — Meniscus injury; still listed among the centre-back absentees by Plaza Deportiva on 3 Sep 2026.
InjuredJustin De Haas — Ankle injury, return expected at the end of September 2026; still missing from the centre of defence on 3 Sep 2026.
InjuredDimitri Foulquier — Knee problems for several months, return uncertain according to Plaza Deportiva (3 Sep 2026).
DoubtfulLuis Rioja — Did not take part in training because of ankle discomfort, according to Plaza Deportiva; he is one of the few available wingers.
InjuredGuido Rodríguez — Muscle tear, return expected around mid-September 2026.
InjuredPablo Maffeo — Hamstring tear for the player who arrived on loan, return hoped for around mid-September 2026.
Before kick-off
What to know before the next match: statistical form, qualitative analysis, and a computed estimate of the 1/X/2 probabilities.
Next match
Valencia CF — Villarreal CF
At homeSaturday 24 October at 18:30Matchday 10
In 6 days. Kick-off time confirmed by the league. Paris time · football-data.org fixtures.
No preview found for this fixture. The press mostly covers the big games, and usually the day before.
Prediction
EstimateValencia CF — Villarreal CF
23 %
1 · Valencia CF
25 %
X · draw
52 %
2 · Villarreal CF
In-house calculation, from this page's standings data alone: 9 matches played by Valencia CF, 9 matches by Villarreal CF. Confidence: fair
The formula, in plain words — with this match's figures
League average. 238 goals scored over 159 team-matches played (19 teams taken into account), i.e. μ = 1.50 goal scored per team per match. This is the reference point: everything that follows is expressed relative to it.
Attacking and defensive strengths. Goals scored (or conceded) per match, divided by μ. 1.00 = exactly average; in defence, above 1.00 means “concedes more than average”.
TeamGoalsRawKept
Valencia CF — attack6 in 9 matches0.450.67
Valencia CF — defence15 in 9 matches1.111.07
Villarreal CF — attack13 in 9 matches0.960.98
Villarreal CF — defence13 in 9 matches0.960.98
The “Kept” column is the result of shrinkage towards the mean: weight = P / (P + 6), i.e. 0.60 for Valencia CF and 0.60 for Villarreal CF. The rest of the weight goes to the league average. This is what stops a lone 5-0 from producing an attack at 3.3 times the average — and hence a 95% probability.
Home advantage (γ). Measured on the league itself: 1.76 goal scored on average by the host against 1.38 by the visitor, over the 45 fixtures present in each team's last 5 matches. Raw ratio 1.27; shrunk towards 1 (weight 0.43, on the log of the ratio) then capped at 1.25 → γ = 1.11. Shrinkage goes towards 1, i.e. no advantage at all: while the sample is small, the model does not assert a home advantage it cannot measure.
Venue correction, specific to each team. Drawn from the home/away split: points per match at the venue concerned are compared to points per match over all fixtures, with stronger shrinkage (weight = P / (P + 8)) and a bound of ±12%.
Valencia CF at home: 0.40 pts/match versus 0.67 overall over 5 matches → ×0.880 Villarreal CF away: 1.00 pts/match versus 1.00 overall over 5 matches → ×1.000
Expected goals. One side's attack is set against the other's defence. γ applies to the host only: applying it the other way round too would count the home advantage twice.
Poisson grid. Probability of every exact score from 0-0 to 8-8, assuming the two goal totals are independent, then adding up the cells: home win 23.0%, draw 25.4%, away win 51.6% — displayed rounded to whole numbers so that they add up to exactly 100. Most likely exact score in the grid: 0-1 (only 12.6%, which says enough about how unpredictable an exact score is).
Limits of this model — they are not anecdotal.
It only knows goals and a venue. Neither absences, suspensions, line-ups, fatigue, stakes, weather nor club context enter the calculation — while the other tabs of this page show that they matter.
The assumption that the two goal totals are independent is false in reality: it slightly underestimates tight scores, hence the draw.
γ is measured over a rolling window (each team's last 5 matches), not over the whole season.
The shrinkage constants (6, 60, 8) and the bounds are choices, not measurements. They were tuned to be cautious early in the season; they were not calibrated on a results history, as none is available here.
No after-the-fact evaluation has been made: at this stage, nobody knows whether this model is better or worse calibrated than another.
What other sources say
No external source has been collected for this match. That is the normal state: readings are taken by hand, and an empty box is better than an unverified figure.
This block shows probability estimates, not predictions, and carries no advisory value. The in-house estimate is the result of a formula applied to a small sample; the figures from external sources are reproduced as they were collected, without their method having been verified.
The full squad
The professional squad by position, captain marked with an armband.
Goalkeepers
Stole Dimitrievski
Cristian Rivero
Kayne van Oevelen
Vicent Abril
Defenders
José Copete
Mouctar Diakhaby
César Tárrega
Justin de Haas
José GayàC
Dimitri Foulquier
Jesús Vázquez
Arnau Martínez
Pablo Maffeo
Alejandro Panach
Aaron Ndive
Marcos Navarro
Midfielders
Guido Rodríguez
Javi Guerra
André Almeida
Luis Rioja
Aliou Dieng
Diego López
Pepelu
Filip Ugrinic
Jaume Durá
Forwards
Sergi Canós
Alberto Marí
Umar Sadiq
Arnaut Danjuma
Hugo Duro
Dani Raba
David Otorbi
Ryunosuke Sato
This team's current captain could not be confirmed with certainty at the last check — no armband is shown above until the information is reliable.
Squad last verified on 31 Aug 2026 — source: Fichajes.com 2026/27 squad list cross-checked with Betfair's squad analysis (12/08/2026) and the line-ups recorded in the match reports of 22, 25 and 30 August 2026; Iker Córdoba excluded (on loan at Mirandés), Harvey Elliott not included as not made official as of 31/08..
What has been said recently
Chronological feed of verified information about the club.
rss17 Oct 2026
The goal is the pending subject of Valencia and Athletic
Matchday 4 brings FC Barcelona to Mestalla on Sunday 6 September at 16:15, the first big occasion of what is announced as the final season at the stadium, with Valencia having taken only one point from three matchdays.
The squad assessment published on 3 September describes a group “unbalanced and weighed down by the injury list”: Umar Sadiq is reported out until December, Copete and Justin De Haas are missing at centre-back, Diego López and Tenés up front, and Dimitri Foulquier has been carrying a fragile knee for months. As a result, only Tárrega is described as fully available at centre-back and Hugo Duro remains the group's only genuine number nine.
Thomson Medical Group, the Singapore-listed company in which Peter Lim is the reference shareholder, cut its losses by 40.85% to €18.82m in the year ended 30 June 2026, on revenue of €284.49m and EBITDA up 23.24%. Its shares are nonetheless down close to 12% since January while the Straits Times index has gained 23%, for a market capitalisation of around €950m.
Levante publicly recounted the end of the Karl Etta Eyong story: “there was indeed a call from Valencia to ask about his situation,” explained sporting director Héctor Rodas, before adding “people ask me for information, and then they do not call me back”. The forward turned down every offer and chose to stay at Levante.
Away ticket sales for the trip to Sevilla, scheduled for 11 September at 21:00 at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, have opened; the squad trained at 10:00 on 3 September with Harvey Elliott already integrated.
Harvey Elliott, on loan from Liverpool, was presented on 1 September. The Englishman said he had spoken by phone with Carlos Corberán before signing, had asked Giorgi Mamardashvili about the club, and hoped to “qualify for Europe, which Valencia deserve”. He set himself “the requirement of reaching 10 to 20 goals and assists”.
Midfielder André Almeida is on loan at Racing Santander until 30 June 2027; his registration was validated by LaLiga at 20:00 on 1 September, among the league's very last deals.
A window judged insufficient to aim for Europe: eight arrivals, four departures and only €9m invested, without the centre-forward or the experienced centre-back Carlos Corberán had asked for.
News last verified on 18 Oct 2026. Sources: sports press (L'Équipe, Le Parisien, Foot Mercato, regional press…) and official club websites — see the link on each item.
Editorial content (playing style, mood, absences, external prediction sources) last verified on 3 Sep 2026. The standings/form data above are refreshed automatically — as is the 1/X/2 estimate, recomputed on every view.
