2026/2027 season

Primeira Liga

Team page

Primeira Liga · Team page

Vitória SC

Head coach: Tiago Margarido · 4-3-3, d'après le onze le plus utilisé par Tiago Margarido cette saison selon BeSoccer (page consultée le 01/09/2026).

Rank

15th

Pts

5

P

8

Form

🟠

The essentials at a glance

The summary of this page: estimated level of play, form trend and qualitative verdict. For the details, head to the other tabs.

Editors' ratings

2/10

Attack

6/10

Defence

1/10

Form

3/10

Confidence / mood

Current risk:Low

15th with 5 pts from 8 matches: 1 win, 2 draws, 5 defeats.

5 goals scored, 10 conceded.

The referee whistles for the end of the match Follow the ACDR here Lamelas x Vitória SC live and minute, with all the most interesting statistics and curiosities.

zerozero · 17 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

For ACDR Lamelas, receiving the Victoria SC is the opportunity to transform the dream of a village into an historic day. The Cup Party takes Castro Give me two different worlds. On the one hand, a professional team with the resources of modern football.

zerozero · 16 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

The SAD of Vitória SC ended the season 2025/26 with a net negative result of 11.06 million euros, returning to losses after having achieved the best financial result of its history in the previous year. The data were released this Friday, through a summary of the main economic and financial indicators published by the club vimaranense.

zerozero · 16 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

The second part began Follow ACDR here Lamelas x Vitória SC live and minute, with all the most interesting statistics and curiosities.

zerozero · 17 Oct 2026 · machine-translated

How the team has played recently

Match-by-match results, record and rhythm of the current season.

Latest matches

Lvs Sport Lisboa e Benfica (A) · 0-2

Dvs Moreirense FC (H) · 1-1

Lvs Académico de Viseu FC (A) · 1-2

Dvs Casa Pia AC (H) · 0-0

Lvs Sporting Clube de Braga (A) · 0-1

WDDLLLLL

5 scored / 10 conceded over 8 matches played

Rest: 7 days since the last match · 1 match played in the last 15 days

Home form

1W - 2D - 1L

Away form

0W - 0D - 4L

Statistics

Computed from this season's scores, every time the page is shown.

Goals scored per match

0.4

Goals conceded per match

1.2

At home

1 scored · 1 conceded in 2 matches

Away

1 scored · 5 conceded in 3 matches

Over 2.5 goals

1 of 5

Both teams score

2 of 5

Clean sheets

1 of 5

Failed to score

3 of 5

Cumulative points vs league average

Not enough matchdays recorded yet for this curve — history builds up with every standings refresh.

How Vitória SC play

System, playing identity, and what sets the team apart at both ends of the pitch.

Playing identity

Preferred system

4-3-3, d'après le onze le plus utilisé par Tiago Margarido cette saison selon BeSoccer (page consultée le 01/09/2026).

Philosophy

Ahead of the trip to Arouca (07/08/2026), Tiago Margarido summed up his project: “Um Vitória que espelhe os valores que procuramos estar a reavivar desde o primeiro dia. O grande objetivo é reavivar aquilo que é a mística do clube”, with a team where “o esforço, dedicação e raça serão inegociáveis, mas sempre com o futebol bem jogado” (source: A Bola, 07/08/2026, article opened and verified).

Attacking strengths

Only 3 goals scored in 4 matches (0.75 goals per game), one of the most struggling attacks in the league. Alioune Ndoye, Gustavo Silva and Samu are each credited with one goal according to Maisfutebol/Flashscore.

Defensive solidity

5 goals conceded in 4 matches, including the goal conceded against Braga on 31/08 (79th minute, Diego Rodrigues) in the Minho derby.

Pressing

Transitions

StrengthFirst win of the season achieved on 23/08/2026 against Nacional (1-0, goal by Gustavo Silva according to Notícias ao Minuto). Head coach Tiago Margarido had reinforcements back available before the derby (including Colombian defender Yeimar Mosquera, 21, according to A Bola).

WeaknessAttack clearly lacking (3 goals in 4 matches) and a fragile defence (5 conceded). Only 3 points from 4 matches, 12th place. Defeat in the Minho derby against Braga on 31/08 (0-1).

The mood around the club, and who is missing

Internal climate, relationship with the supporters, and known absences before the next match.

Mood

Squad confidence

The mood remains tense after a failed start to the season: three points from four matchdays, only three goals scored and a defeat in the Minho derby, which Tiago Margarido judged unjust given the run of play. The board responded in the market, stringing together attacking arrivals — forward Arnel Jakupović, Swedish winger Victor Andersson and, on the last day, creative Brazilian Alanzinho, a free agent after four seasons at Moreirense. The message sent is that of a refocused squad, Miguel Nóbrega having been loaned out for lack of a place. Hosting Casa Pia on Sunday becomes a fixture in which Vitória no longer really have the right to slip.

Coach / players / board relationship

At the same press conference (A Bola, 07/08/2026), Margarido explained that he favours quality over experience in his recruitment choices (“Experiência? Queremos qualidade”) and expressed the wish that no player leave the squad before the end of the transfer window. No element verified regarding any possible tension with the board (Miguel Pinto Lisboa).

Mood with the supporters

Vitória has a large membership base, one of the biggest in the country outside the three major clubs — 13,611 sócios were registered as eligible to vote (members for more than a year, June subscription paid) in the presidential election of 13 June 2026, won by Rui Rodrigues by just two votes (abola.pt, Jornal de Notícias, Observador and dnoticias.pt, all dated 13/06/2026 — this figure relates to eligible voters, not the total number of sócios). The 2026/27 budget, approved at the general meeting on 25 July 2026 (213 voters: 100 in favour, 61 against, 52 abstentions), forecasts around €3.02m in revenue from subscriptions and season tickets, out of total expected revenue of €5.32m (RTP.pt and abola.pt, 25/07/2026). No figures on attendance at the Estádio D. Afonso Henriques for the first 4 home matches of 2026/27 have been found.

Pressure on the head coach

No public questioning reported at this stage: Tiago Margarido has been in charge since 24 June 2026 (official announcement, Notícias ao Minuto), under contract until 2027 with a club option for an additional season.

Club objectives

The urgency is in points terms: getting out of the bottom half and fixing a poor attacking output, which the arrivals of Jakupović, Andersson and Alanzinho directly address. Tiago Margarido continues to express his course in terms of identity rather than points, having claimed since his arrival the desire to revive the club's “mística”. Hosting Casa Pia is the first test of this reshaped team, in a stadium where the board has maintained a very affordable pricing policy for its sócios, with tickets at 4 euros and season tickets from 20 euros.

Recent internal tensions

No internal tension reported at this stage.

Absences

InjuredGui Ribeiro — 20-year-old goalkeeper, recovering from a ruptured cruciate ligament (long-term injury, ongoing since 6 December according to BeSoccer); unavailable ahead of the Minho derby at Braga (matchday 4, 30-31/08/2026). Consistent sources: BeSoccer and Sports Mole (29/08/2026).

Before kick-off

What to know before the next match: statistical form, qualitative analysis, and a computed estimate of the 1/X/2 probabilities.

Next match

Vitória SC — CS Marítimo

At homeFriday 23 October at 21:45Matchday 9

In 5 days. Kick-off time confirmed by the league. Paris time · football-data.org fixtures.

Prediction, odds and form of both teams →

What the press says

No preview found for this fixture. The press mostly covers the big games, and usually the day before.

Prediction

EstimateVitória SC — CS Marítimo

37 %

1 · Vitória SC

28 %

X · draw

35 %

2 · CS Marítimo

In-house calculation, from this page's standings data alone: 8 matches played by Vitória SC, 8 matches by CS Marítimo. Confidence: fair

The formula, in plain words — with this match's figures

League average. 195 goals scored over 142 team-matches played (18 teams taken into account), i.e. μ = 1.37 goal scored per team per match. This is the reference point: everything that follows is expressed relative to it.
Attacking and defensive strengths. Goals scored (or conceded) per match, divided by μ. 1.00 = exactly average; in defence, above 1.00 means “concedes more than average”.
TeamGoalsRawKept
Vitória SC — attack5 in 8 matches0.460.69
Vitória SC — defence10 in 8 matches0.910.95
CS Marítimo — attack9 in 8 matches0.820.90
CS Marítimo — defence14 in 8 matches1.271.16
The “Kept” column is the result of shrinkage towards the mean: weight = P / (P + 6), i.e. 0.57 for Vitória SC and 0.57 for CS Marítimo. The rest of the weight goes to the league average. This is what stops a lone 5-0 from producing an attack at 3.3 times the average — and hence a 95% probability.
Home advantage (γ). Measured on the league itself: 1.20 goal scored on average by the host against 1.49 by the visitor, over the 45 fixtures present in each team's last 5 matches. Raw ratio 0.81; shrunk towards 1 (weight 0.43, on the log of the ratio) then capped at 1.25 → γ = 1.00. Shrinkage goes towards 1, i.e. no advantage at all: while the sample is small, the model does not assert a home advantage it cannot measure.
Venue correction, specific to each team. Drawn from the home/away split: points per match at the venue concerned are compared to points per match over all fixtures, with stronger shrinkage (weight = P / (P + 8)) and a bound of ±12%.
Vitória SC at home: 1.25 pts/match versus 0.63 overall over 4 matches → ×1.120
CS Marítimo away: 1.00 pts/match versus 1.00 overall over 4 matches → ×1.000
Expected goals. One side's attack is set against the other's defence. γ applies to the host only: applying it the other way round too would count the home advantage twice.
λ_{Vitória SC} = 1.37 × 0.69 × 1.16 × 1.00 × 1.120 = 1.23
λ_{CS Marítimo} = 1.37 × 0.90 × 0.95 × 1.000 = 1.17
Poisson grid. Probability of every exact score from 0-0 to 8-8, assuming the two goal totals are independent, then adding up the cells: home win 37.5%, draw 27.7%, away win 34.8% — displayed rounded to whole numbers so that they add up to exactly 100. Most likely exact score in the grid: 1-1 (only 13.1%, which says enough about how unpredictable an exact score is).

Limits of this model — they are not anecdotal.

It only knows goals and a venue. Neither absences, suspensions, line-ups, fatigue, stakes, weather nor club context enter the calculation — while the other tabs of this page show that they matter.
The assumption that the two goal totals are independent is false in reality: it slightly underestimates tight scores, hence the draw.
γ is measured over a rolling window (each team's last 5 matches), not over the whole season.
The shrinkage constants (6, 60, 8) and the bounds are choices, not measurements. They were tuned to be cautious early in the season; they were not calibrated on a results history, as none is available here.
No after-the-fact evaluation has been made: at this stage, nobody knows whether this model is better or worse calibrated than another.

What other sources say

No external source has been collected for this match. That is the normal state: readings are taken by hand, and an empty box is better than an unverified figure.

This block shows probability estimates, not predictions, and carries no advisory value. The in-house estimate is the result of a formula applied to a small sample; the figures from external sources are reproduced as they were collected, without their method having been verified.

The full squad

The professional squad by position, captain marked with an armband.

Goalkeepers

Charles
Gui
Juan Castillo
Lucas Furtado

Defenders

André Oliveira
João Mendes
Miguel Maga
Miguel Nóbrega
Óscar Rivas
R. Abascal
Thiago Balieiro
Yeimar Mosquera
O. Lebedenko
T. Strata

Midfielders

Beni Mukendi
Diogo Sousa
Gonçalo Nogueira
M. Mitrović
Miguel Nogueira
Rica Rocha
Rodrigo Duarte
Samu
Telmo Arcanjo

Forwards

Alioune Ndoye
E. Opara
Fabio Blanco
Guilherme Paula
Gustavo Silva
Nélson Oliveira
Noah Saviolo
O. Camara
Vando Félix

This team's current captain could not be confirmed with certainty at the last check — no armband is shown above until the information is reliable.

Squad last verified on 1 Sep 2026 — source: Maisfutebol.iol.pt (Vitória SC squad page) and Worldfootball.net, squad cross-checked across both sources; the coach's name on the Maisfutebol page (“Luís Pinto”) is clearly outdated/incorrect and is contradicted by news articles dated 31/08/2026 confirming Tiago Margarido — see UNCERTAINTIES.

What has been said recently

Chronological feed of verified information about the club.

rss17 Oct 2026

Vitória SC wins Lamelas reduced to 10 and advances in the Cup of Portugal

Source: Notícias ao Minuto — Desporto

rss17 Oct 2026

Agreement with V Sports provides entry of 3.8 million in the SAD of Vitória SC

Source: Notícias ao Minuto — Desporto

rss11 Oct 2026

Scrambles confirmed. The eleven of Benfica facing the Victoria SC

Source: Notícias ao Minuto — Desporto

rss10 Oct 2026

Tiago Margarido ensures that Victory SC will want to win in the Light

Source: Notícias ao Minuto — Desporto

rss17 Oct 2026

Joana Silva and Kelly Bullock guarantee the triumph of the Gaia Valadares in Guimarães

Source: zerozero

rss11 Oct 2026

Marco Silva's reaction after the triumph of Benfica before Vitória SC

Source: Notícias ao Minuto — Desporto

Transfers3 Sep 2026

Vitória SC have completed the arrival of Alanzinho, a 26-year-old Brazilian attacking midfielder and a free agent after four seasons at Moreirense, where he played 141 matches for 25 goals and 25 assists. Having played for Palmeiras, Guarani, Operário Ferroviário and Sport Recife, he is presented as the creative player Tiago Margarido's attack was calling for.

Source: A Bola

Transfers2 Sep 2026

For lack of a place in Tiago Margarido's squad, 26-year-old centre-back Miguel Nóbrega has been loaned to União de Leiria until the end of the season. He will have played only 15 matches in a season at Guimarães.

Source: A Bola

Club2 Sep 2026

Vitória SC host Casa Pia on Sunday at 18:00 at the Estádio D. Afonso Henriques for matchday 5.

Source: Mais Guimarães

Other2 Sep 2026

Beyond football, the club announced the same day the renewal of two senior players in its volleyball section: setter Luiz Philippe, with 284 points in 32 matches and signed for a third consecutive season, and João Oliveira, 31 and a Guimarães native, who begins his sixth season at the club after 169 points in 30 matches.

Source: Vitória SC (site officiel)

Other2 Sep 2026

Gustavo Correia has been appointed to referee Vitória SC v Casa Pia, with Luís Ferreira on VAR.

Source: Maisfutebol

Transfers2 Sep 2026

Vitória SC have confirmed the arrival of Austrian forward Arnel Jakupović, 28, under contract until 2029 and wearing number 9. “The Portuguese league is one of the ten best in the world and playing here is very special for me,” he said.

Source: Vitória SC (site officiel)

Transfers2 Sep 2026

Arnel Jakupović, who has played in England, Italy, Slovenia and Croatia, introduced himself thus: “I am a forward, good at finishing, and I am hungry for goals.”

Source: Maisfutebol

Club31 Aug 2026

Beaten 1-0 by SC Braga in the Minho derby (goal by Diego Rodrigues, 79th), Vitória SC missed the chance to leave the Pedreira with a point. Head coach Tiago Margarido judged the match to have been even (“the fairest result would have been a draw”) and regretted the timing of the goal conceded.

Source: Maisfutebol (IOL)

Club31 Aug 2026

Report of the Minho derby, SC Braga 1-0 Vitória SC: goal by Diego Rodrigues in the 79th minute, having come on seven minutes earlier; Gustavo Silva was Vitória SC's main offensive threat despite the defeat.

Source: Maisfutebol (IOL)

Result30 Aug 2026

Vitória SC lost 1-0 at Braga in the matchday 4 Minho derby and remain stuck in the bottom half on 3 points.

Source: Campeonatos Internacionais

News last verified on 18 Oct 2026. Sources: sports press (L'Équipe, Le Parisien, Foot Mercato, regional press…) and official club websites — see the link on each item.

Editorial content (playing style, mood, absences, external prediction sources) last verified on 3 Sep 2026. The standings/form data above are refreshed automatically — as is the 1/X/2 estimate, recomputed on every view.