Napoli has started the season very moderately. The Italian top club lost no less than five of the first nine official games and thus experienced the worst season start in almost 25 years. The pressure on trainer Massimiliano Allegri furthermore increases, he mainly preaches to stay calm. Napoli already loses this season for the fifth time, pressure [...] Continue reading..
Match-by-match results, record and rhythm of the current season.
Latest matches
Lvs Venezia FC (A) · 0-1
Wvs Frosinone Calcio (H) · 3-0
Dvs ACF Fiorentina (A) · 1-1
Wvs Bologna FC 1909 (H) · 1-0
Lvs FC Internazionale Milano (A) · 2-3
WWWDLLL
10 scored / 7 conceded over 7 matches played
Rest: 1 day since the last match · 2 matches played in the last 15 days
Home form
2W - 0D - 1L
Away form
1W - 1D - 2L
Statistics
Computed from this season's scores, every time the page is shown.
Goals scored per match
1.4
Goals conceded per match
1.0
At home
4 scored · 0 conceded in 2 matches
Away
3 scored · 5 conceded in 3 matches
Over 2.5 goals
2 of 5
Both teams score
2 of 5
Clean sheets
2 of 5
Failed to score
1 of 5
Cumulative points vs league average
Not enough matchdays recorded yet for this curve — history builds up with every standings refresh.
How Napoli play
System, playing identity, and what sets the team apart at both ends of the pitch.
Playing identity
Preferred system
4-3-3
Philosophy
Allegri favours tactical adaptability, alternating between matches from 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1 and 3-5-2 depending on the opponent and the players available, rather than a fixed system.
Attacking strengths
Attack led by Rasmus Højlund, supported by Kevin De Bruyne; the only Napoli goal was scored by Højlund in the defeat against Como.
Defensive solidity
Defensive line weakened by several absences (Buongiorno, Marianucci, Mazzocchi) and a temporary unavailability for Badiashile.
Pressing
The press has documented two contradictory faces: during the pre-season friendly against Osasuna, Allegri had set up a press judged aggressive (“il Napoli aggredisce gli avversari con un pressing che rende la vita difficile”, ansa.it, 05/08/2026; a 4-4-2 shape out of possession with the forwards pressing the opposition's build-up players, sport.virgilio.it, 05/08/2026), but in the defeat against Como on matchday 2, the Gazzetta dello Sport judged the team “incapace di costruire, pressare, senza idee” (picked up by calcionapoli1926.it, 31/08/2026), a sign of a pressing identity still unstable in competitive matches.
Transitions
Against Osasuna in a friendly, Politano had been praised for his ability to “recuperare palloni, a spezzare il gioco avversario ed a ripartire in velocità” (sport.virgilio.it, 05/08/2026); but against Como, the Gazzetta dello Sport pointed to “evidenti problemi di equilibrio” leaving dangerous spaces for the opposition's counter-attacks (calcionapoli1926.it, 31/08/2026).
StrengthSquad judged complete by president De Laurentiis, who did not deem massive reinforcements necessary; a long-term contract (until 2029) offered to Allegri to establish a stable project.
WeaknessHome defeat as early as matchday 2 against promoted side Como (1-2); several defenders unavailable at the same time.
The mood around the club, and who is missing
Internal climate, relationship with the supporters, and known absences before the next match.
Mood
Squad confidence
The home defeat to Como cooled the mood, but the club went back to work at Castel Volturno on 1 September after a single day off, with a programme built around possession and small-sided games. Captain Di Lorenzo's extension until 2030, announced on 2 September, provided a signal of stability just as the injury list is refusing to clear. McTominay's operation, which deprives Allegri of his box-to-box midfielder until 11 October, forces a rethink of the midfield balance forty-eight hours before a trip to San Siro. Beukema's return in defence is the week's only good medical news.
Coach / players / board relationship
The bond between captain and institution has just been sealed publicly: in confirming his extension until 2030, Giovanni Di Lorenzo thanked Aurelio De Laurentiis, sporting director Giovanni Manna and his agent Mario Giuffredi by name, and spoke of a “special day” that ties him “still more closely to this club, this city and these supporters”. That sequence contrasts with the frustration expressed at the end of the window by a head coach who did not get the third forward he hoped for. Allegri, for his part, avoided any public row and focused on preparing for a schedule he describes as demanding on three fronts.
Mood with the supporters
The 2026-27 campaign is the club's centenary, and Allegri himself placed the season under that banner by promising “a fine and demanding year” to be contested across three competitions. That identity argument comes at the right moment, after the disappointment of the first home game of the Allegri era, lost to promoted Como, which drew heavy criticism from part of the kop on social media. Di Lorenzo's extension until 2030, presented by the captain as a promise of “further success” to the tifosi, is clearly intended to rebuild that bond. The trip to San Siro, on Saturday at 18:00, will be the first big occasion of the centenary year.
Pressure on the head coach
The pressure on Allegri is real but contained: two matchdays, one win and one defeat, and already a public debate about the strength of the squad. The coach responded by setting objectives of competitiveness on all three fronts and by naming eight contenders for the scudetto — Inter, Napoli, Milan, Juventus, Roma, Fiorentina, Como and Atalanta — a way of widening the field of responsibility. He will have to manage without McTominay for more than a month, without Buongiorno until January, and will face the press on Friday 4 September at 14:00 before the trip to the reigning champions. A result at San Siro would be enough for the tension to subside.
Club objectives
Allegri set out a threefold objective for the centenary year: “holding up” in Serie A, in the Champions League and in the Coppa Italia. On the European stage, he made it a priority to come through the league phase in the best possible shape for the knockout rounds, and the club submitted a UEFA list of twenty-three players including McTominay and Højlund. Internally, what he mainly expects from Rasmus Højlund is an improvement in his goal tally. The captain's extension until 2030 fits a logic of continuity the board openly embraces.
Recent internal tensions
The most delicate subject remains the gap between the head coach's expectations and the choices made at the end of the window, a third top-level forward never having arrived. Added to that is a heavily penalising injury list: McTominay operated on for a heart condition and out until 11 October, Buongiorno sidelined until January, absences that weaken two key areas. The immediate schedule, with Inter and then Arsenal, leaves little margin for error before the discontent of part of the tifosi, already visible after the Como defeat, returns. No open conflict between Allegri and the board has been reported, however.
Absences
InjuredScott McTominay — Operated on in England to treat a cardiac arrhythmia; out against Inter, Fiorentina, Bologna and Arsenal, with a return announced for 11 October.
InjuredAlessandro Buongiorno — Meniscus injury; Allegri has confirmed he will be out until January.
BackSam Beukema — Recovered and available again in defence for the trip to San Siro.
Before kick-off
What to know before the next match: statistical form, qualitative analysis, and a computed estimate of the 1/X/2 probabilities.
Next match
Napoli — Roma
At homeSaturday 24 October at 18:00Matchday 8
In 6 days. Kick-off time confirmed by the league. Paris time · football-data.org fixtures.
No preview found for this fixture. The press mostly covers the big games, and usually the day before.
Prediction
EstimateNapoli — Roma
26 %
1 · Napoli
25 %
X · draw
49 %
2 · Roma
In-house calculation, from this page's standings data alone: 7 matches played by Napoli, 7 matches by Roma. Confidence: medium
The formula, in plain words — with this match's figures
League average. 187 goals scored over 130 team-matches played (20 teams taken into account), i.e. μ = 1.44 goal scored per team per match. This is the reference point: everything that follows is expressed relative to it.
Attacking and defensive strengths. Goals scored (or conceded) per match, divided by μ. 1.00 = exactly average; in defence, above 1.00 means “concedes more than average”.
TeamGoalsRawKept
Napoli — attack10 in 7 matches0.991.00
Napoli — defence7 in 7 matches0.700.84
Roma — attack16 in 7 matches1.591.32
Roma — defence3 in 7 matches0.300.62
The “Kept” column is the result of shrinkage towards the mean: weight = P / (P + 6), i.e. 0.54 for Napoli and 0.54 for Roma. The rest of the weight goes to the league average. This is what stops a lone 5-0 from producing an attack at 3.3 times the average — and hence a 95% probability.
Home advantage (γ). Measured on the league itself: 1.65 goal scored on average by the host against 1.33 by the visitor, over the 52 fixtures present in each team's last 5 matches. Raw ratio 1.24; shrunk towards 1 (weight 0.44, on the log of the ratio) then capped at 1.25 → γ = 1.10. Shrinkage goes towards 1, i.e. no advantage at all: while the sample is small, the model does not assert a home advantage it cannot measure.
Venue correction, specific to each team. Drawn from the home/away split: points per match at the venue concerned are compared to points per match over all fixtures, with stronger shrinkage (weight = P / (P + 8)) and a bound of ±12%.
Napoli at home: 2.00 pts/match versus 1.43 overall over 3 matches → ×1.109 Roma away: 2.33 pts/match versus 2.43 overall over 3 matches → ×0.989
Expected goals. One side's attack is set against the other's defence. γ applies to the host only: applying it the other way round too would count the home advantage twice.
Poisson grid. Probability of every exact score from 0-0 to 8-8, assuming the two goal totals are independent, then adding up the cells: home win 26.4%, draw 25.2%, away win 48.4% — displayed rounded to whole numbers so that they add up to exactly 100. Most likely exact score in the grid: 1-1 (only 12.0%, which says enough about how unpredictable an exact score is).
Limits of this model — they are not anecdotal.
It only knows goals and a venue. Neither absences, suspensions, line-ups, fatigue, stakes, weather nor club context enter the calculation — while the other tabs of this page show that they matter.
The assumption that the two goal totals are independent is false in reality: it slightly underestimates tight scores, hence the draw.
γ is measured over a rolling window (each team's last 5 matches), not over the whole season.
The shrinkage constants (6, 60, 8) and the bounds are choices, not measurements. They were tuned to be cautious early in the season; they were not calibrated on a results history, as none is available here.
No after-the-fact evaluation has been made: at this stage, nobody knows whether this model is better or worse calibrated than another.
What other sources say
No external source has been collected for this match. That is the normal state: readings are taken by hand, and an empty box is better than an unverified figure.
This block shows probability estimates, not predictions, and carries no advisory value. The in-house estimate is the result of a formula applied to a small sample; the figures from external sources are reproduced as they were collected, without their method having been verified.
The full squad
The professional squad by position, captain marked with an armband.
Goalkeepers
Alex Meret
Nikita Contini
Vanja Milinkovic-Savic
Defenders
Benoît Badiashile
Costantino Favasuli
Alessandro Buongiorno
Luca Marianucci
Amir Rrahmani
Rafa Marín
Mathías Olivera
Giovanni Di LorenzoC
Pasquale Mazzocchi
Sam Beukema
Leonardo Spinazzola
Christian Garofalo
Midfielders
Jens Cajuste
Billy Gilmour
Scott McTominay
Kevin De Bruyne
Antonio Vergara
Jesper Lindstrøm
Stanislav Lobotka
Frank Anguissa
Forwards
David Neres
Rasmus Højlund
Lorenzo Lucca
Matteo Politano
Giovane
Alisson Santos
Noa Lang
Squad last verified on 31 Aug 2026 — source: corrieredellosport.it (rosa).
What has been said recently
Chronological feed of verified information about the club.
rss18 Oct 2026
"Spannings around Noa Lang run on: Angry assailant stops warming up at Napoli'
Scott McTominay is in England to undergo a procedure to treat his cardiac arrhythmia; he will miss the league matches against Inter, Fiorentina and Bologna as well as the Champions League fixture against Arsenal, his return being announced for 11 October against Frosinone.
Allegri will speak to the press on Friday 4 September at 14:00 before Inter v Napoli, scheduled for Saturday 5 September at 18:00 at the Meazza. A switch to a 4-2-3-1 with De Bruyne in support of the striker is being considered to make up for McTominay's absence, while Sam Beukema is announced as recovered and available again in defence.
Giovanni Di Lorenzo has officially extended his contract until 2030: “Today is a special day because I am tying myself still more closely to this club, this city and these supporters,” said the captain, who thanked Aurelio De Laurentiis, sporting director Giovanni Manna and his agent Mario Giuffredi, and said he wanted to “bring the tifosi more success”.
To replace McTominay in midfield against Inter, Sky Sport, through Francesco Modugno, put forward the name of Antonio Vergara, whose chances of starting have risen sharply.
After a day off granted by Allegri the day after the defeat to Como, the squad went back to work at Castel Volturno on 1 September: activation, possession-phase drills, athletic work and small-sided games according to the club's statement.
Napoli invested around €71m, with Rasmus Højlund from Manchester United for €44m, Alisson Santos from Sporting CP for €16.5m, goalkeeper Vanja Milinković-Savić from Torino for €6m and Benoît Badiashile on loan from Chelsea.
Cyril Ngonge and Michael Folorunsho have left Napoli for Monza, while Mazzocchi and Juan Jesus were reported close to moves to Venezia and Cajuste to Málaga in the closing stages of the window.
News last verified on 18 Oct 2026. Sources: sports press (L'Équipe, Le Parisien, Foot Mercato, regional press…) and official club websites — see the link on each item.
Editorial content (playing style, mood, absences, external prediction sources) last verified on 3 Sep 2026. The standings/form data above are refreshed automatically — as is the 1/X/2 estimate, recomputed on every view.
