Head coach: Iñigo Pérez · 4-2-3-1 (dispositif probable donné par la prévisualisation Betfair du 28/08/2026 ; non confirmé par le club)
Rank
10th
Pts
9
P
9
Form
🟡 Average
The essentials at a glance
The summary of this page: estimated level of play, form trend and qualitative verdict. For the details, head to the other tabs.
Editors' ratings
6/10
Attack
6/10
Defence
5/10
Form
7/10
Confidence / mood
Current risk:High
10th with 9 pts from 9 matches: 2 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats.
13 goals scored, 13 conceded.
Among them is the duel next Tuesday in one of the European football cots, the Anfield Stadium of Liverpool, which will face the English team with the Villarreal. I find where the yellow team arrives after the victory at home 3-1 to Naples and will be pounded by Polish collegiate Szymon Marciniak, one of the best collegiates in Europe.
The tie to zero between the Villarreal and the Elche had a moment where the encounter could have changed when the collegiate Víctor García Verdura pointed a maximum penalty in favor of the Elche at 59 minutes of meeting. All for a possible grip from Alberto Moleiro to Roy Revivo. & nbsp;
It will be a tense time for club’s president despite the Champions League game at Anfield offering a symbol of how far they have come The first time Fernando Roig watched Villarreal play as their president, he sat in the stand at a tiny whitewashed ground that had concrete fever and was half empty. It was a Sunday night in the second division, they lost 3-0 to Badajoz, and he didn’t enjoy it much.
Match-by-match results, record and rhythm of the current season.
Latest matches
Dvs Elche CF (H) · 0-0
Lvs Real Madrid CF (A) · 0-1
Wvs Levante UD (H) · 3-1
Wvs Málaga CF (A) · 3-1
Lvs Real Betis Balompié (H) · 1-2
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13 scored / 13 conceded over 9 matches played
Rest: 1 day since the last match · 2 matches played in the last 15 days
Home form
1W - 1D - 2L
Away form
1W - 2D - 2L
Statistics
Computed from this season's scores, every time the page is shown.
Goals scored per match
1.4
Goals conceded per match
1.0
At home
4 scored · 3 conceded in 3 matches
Away
3 scored · 2 conceded in 2 matches
Over 2.5 goals
3 of 5
Both teams score
3 of 5
Clean sheets
1 of 5
Failed to score
2 of 5
Cumulative points vs league average
Not enough matchdays recorded yet for this curve — history builds up with every standings refresh.
How Villarreal CF play
System, playing identity, and what sets the team apart at both ends of the pitch.
Playing identity
Preferred system
4-2-3-1 (dispositif probable donné par la prévisualisation Betfair du 28/08/2026 ; non confirmé par le club)
Philosophy
Iñigo Pérez, who arrived from Rayo Vallecano on 01/06/2026 for three seasons, relies on one of his self-declared trademarks — “jugar con los extremos abiertos” to create width — with a balancing double pivot (Comesaña, Pape Gueye) and Moleiro in an advanced position (Betfair, 15/08/2026).
Attacking strengths
4 goals in 3 matchdays (LaLiga, 31/08/2026), with plenty of output but little end product: after the 0-1 at Mendizorroza, the coach acknowledged “hemos tenido muchas ocasiones y no hemos materializado” (official website, 28/08/2026).
Defensive solidity
5 goals conceded in 3 matches (LaLiga, 31/08/2026), including two 2-2 draws conceded in Santander and at the Metropolitano; Iñigo Pérez admits he needs to “corregir por qué encajamos los goles” and points to occasional lapses (official website, 28/08/2026).
Pressing
No verified data on the intensity and height of the pressing since the change of head coach; the head coach does, however, insist on the need to “match the frequency” — emotional and rhythmic — of the opponent away from home (official website, 27/08/2026).
Transitions
No reliable, dated analysis of the transition behaviour of Iñigo Pérez's Villarreal could be verified at this stage.
StrengthA European-level squad retained for a second consecutive Champions League campaign (3rd in LaLiga in 2025-26 with 72 points), with Foyth, Renato Veiga, Comesaña, Pépé, Moleiro, Mikautadze, Ayoze Pérez and Gerard Moreno, complemented by the experience of Péter Gulácsi in goal.
WeaknessThe unreplaced departure of three senior midfielders (Dani Parejo and Thomas Partey at the end of their contracts, Ramón Terrats sold to Getafe), a collective adaptation still visible and an opening fixture list entirely away from home.
The mood around the club, and who is missing
Internal climate, relationship with the supporters, and known absences before the next match.
Mood
Squad confidence
Middling, pending a first real reference point. Villarreal played their first three matchdays away, taking two draws at Santander and the Metropolitano and losing 1-0 at Mendizorroza: two points, four goals scored, five conceded. Iñigo Pérez summed up the problem himself after Vitoria — plenty of chances, no conversion, and goals conceded that need fixing. The club nonetheless goes into September with two concrete reasons for optimism: the season's first home game on Saturday against Deportivo, and a Champions League campaign starting three days later at Dortmund. The promotion of three Cantera Grogueta youngsters to the first team also widens options left thin by a window with two signings.
Coach / players / board relationship
Still new but calm. Iñigo Pérez, who arrived from Rayo Vallecano on 1 June 2026 on a three-year deal, was preferred to an extension for Marcelino García Toral, and the board has shown no sign of impatience despite the lack of a win. The club committed to a summer of continuity, with only Péter Gulácsi and Nathan Saliba as signings, several outgoing loans and the internal promotion of three academy players. The coach himself presented Saliba as the addition that allows them to absorb the twin load of LaLiga and the Champions League. No disagreement between bench and boardroom appears in the sources consulted.
Mood with the supporters
La Cerámica will finally see its team: three away trips in a row opened the season, and Saturday's visit of Deportivo is the first home fixture. On 2 September the club announced it had passed 19,000 season-ticket holders, around 82% of a ground reduced to 23,173 seats after renovation, a rate that puts Villarreal among the best-supported clubs relative to their size. The trip to Dortmund on 8 September is already mobilising fans: away tickets went on sale at 50 euros for season-ticket holders, peñistas and supporters, until midday on 7 September. The prospect of hosting PSG, Napoli and Manchester United at La Cerámica is the main argument of this season-ticket campaign. The mood of the crowd therefore remains to be established, having not yet been expressed.
Pressure on the head coach
Low despite the lack of a win. Iñigo Pérez has the credit of a three-year contract, the mitigating context of three consecutive away trips and the Champions League opener, a competition he himself named as the big objective on arrival. His message remains analytical rather than defensive: he points to a lack of attacking efficiency and defensive lapses without looking for excuses. No source consulted suggests his position is in question. The run of Deportivo, Dortmund, Betis, Málaga and Levante in sixteen days will, however, give a first serious measure of his work.
Club objectives
Confirming their European standing after a third place and 72 points in 2025-26, and acquitting themselves well in a second consecutive Champions League. The draw produced a demanding set: PSG, Napoli, Sabah and Manchester United at home, Dortmund, Liverpool, Slavia Prague and Fenerbahçe away, from 8 September to 27 January. Betfair summed up the ambition as maintaining their level in LaLiga and progressing in Europe and in the Copa del Rey. In the very short term the objective is simpler: finally winning, at home, against a promoted side. The academy remains the third pillar, with three Cantera Grogueta players integrated into the first-team squad.
Recent internal tensions
No internal tension reported by the sources consulted. The only identified area of fragility is sporting and structural: the unreplaced departure of three senior midfielders, Dani Parejo and Thomas Partey out of contract and Ramón Terrats sold to Getafe, along with Alfonso Pedraza. The club answered with a single signing in that position, Nathan Saliba, and with the promotion of young players. The treatment room, with Juan Foyth expected in early October, also deprives the defence of its leader. Nothing, however, suggests any strain between the dressing room, the head coach and the board.
Absences
InjuredJuan Foyth — Cruciate ligament rupture, return expected at the beginning of October 2026.
DoubtfulGerard Moreno — Physical discomfort reported in August, his availability still to be confirmed.
DoubtfulSergi Cardona — Physical discomfort reported in August, doubtful for the coming fixtures.
Before kick-off
What to know before the next match: statistical form, qualitative analysis, and a computed estimate of the 1/X/2 probabilities.
Next match
Valencia CF — Villarreal CF
AwaySaturday 24 October at 18:30Matchday 10
In 6 days. Kick-off time confirmed by the league. Paris time · football-data.org fixtures.
No preview found for this fixture. The press mostly covers the big games, and usually the day before.
Prediction
EstimateValencia CF — Villarreal CF
23 %
1 · Valencia CF
25 %
X · draw
52 %
2 · Villarreal CF
In-house calculation, from this page's standings data alone: 9 matches played by Valencia CF, 9 matches by Villarreal CF. Confidence: fair
The formula, in plain words — with this match's figures
League average. 238 goals scored over 159 team-matches played (19 teams taken into account), i.e. μ = 1.50 goal scored per team per match. This is the reference point: everything that follows is expressed relative to it.
Attacking and defensive strengths. Goals scored (or conceded) per match, divided by μ. 1.00 = exactly average; in defence, above 1.00 means “concedes more than average”.
TeamGoalsRawKept
Valencia CF — attack6 in 9 matches0.450.67
Valencia CF — defence15 in 9 matches1.111.07
Villarreal CF — attack13 in 9 matches0.960.98
Villarreal CF — defence13 in 9 matches0.960.98
The “Kept” column is the result of shrinkage towards the mean: weight = P / (P + 6), i.e. 0.60 for Valencia CF and 0.60 for Villarreal CF. The rest of the weight goes to the league average. This is what stops a lone 5-0 from producing an attack at 3.3 times the average — and hence a 95% probability.
Home advantage (γ). Measured on the league itself: 1.76 goal scored on average by the host against 1.38 by the visitor, over the 45 fixtures present in each team's last 5 matches. Raw ratio 1.27; shrunk towards 1 (weight 0.43, on the log of the ratio) then capped at 1.25 → γ = 1.11. Shrinkage goes towards 1, i.e. no advantage at all: while the sample is small, the model does not assert a home advantage it cannot measure.
Venue correction, specific to each team. Drawn from the home/away split: points per match at the venue concerned are compared to points per match over all fixtures, with stronger shrinkage (weight = P / (P + 8)) and a bound of ±12%.
Valencia CF at home: 0.40 pts/match versus 0.67 overall over 5 matches → ×0.880 Villarreal CF away: 1.00 pts/match versus 1.00 overall over 5 matches → ×1.000
Expected goals. One side's attack is set against the other's defence. γ applies to the host only: applying it the other way round too would count the home advantage twice.
Poisson grid. Probability of every exact score from 0-0 to 8-8, assuming the two goal totals are independent, then adding up the cells: home win 23.0%, draw 25.4%, away win 51.6% — displayed rounded to whole numbers so that they add up to exactly 100. Most likely exact score in the grid: 0-1 (only 12.6%, which says enough about how unpredictable an exact score is).
Limits of this model — they are not anecdotal.
It only knows goals and a venue. Neither absences, suspensions, line-ups, fatigue, stakes, weather nor club context enter the calculation — while the other tabs of this page show that they matter.
The assumption that the two goal totals are independent is false in reality: it slightly underestimates tight scores, hence the draw.
γ is measured over a rolling window (each team's last 5 matches), not over the whole season.
The shrinkage constants (6, 60, 8) and the bounds are choices, not measurements. They were tuned to be cautious early in the season; they were not calibrated on a results history, as none is available here.
No after-the-fact evaluation has been made: at this stage, nobody knows whether this model is better or worse calibrated than another.
What other sources say
No external source has been collected for this match. That is the normal state: readings are taken by hand, and an empty box is better than an unverified figure.
This block shows probability estimates, not predictions, and carries no advisory value. The in-house estimate is the result of a formula applied to a small sample; the figures from external sources are reproduced as they were collected, without their method having been verified.
The full squad
The professional squad by position, captain marked with an armband.
Goalkeepers
Luiz Júnior
Péter Gulácsi
Rubén Gómez
Defenders
Juan Foyth
Renato Veiga
Logan Costa
Santiago Mouriño
Sergi Cardona
Carlos Romero
Pau Navarro
Alexander Freeman
Midfielders
Santi Comesaña
Pape Gueye
Nathan Saliba
Alassane Diatta
Carlos Maciá
Cheikh Thiam
Forwards
Gerard Moreno
Georges Mikautadze
Nicolas Pépé
Alberto Moleiro
Ayoze Pérez
Tajon Buchanan
Tani Oluwaseyi
Ilias Akhomach
This team's current captain could not be confirmed with certainty at the last check — no armband is shown above until the information is reliable.
Squad last verified on 31 Aug 2026 — source: Cross-check of BeSoccer (2026/27 squad list) and Fichajes.com (2026/27 squad list), adjusted for the outgoing loans confirmed by Fichajes/FutbolFantasy (Kambwala to Como on 26/08, Thiago Fernández to Levante, Pau Cabanes to Eldense, Arnau Tenas to Mallorca)..
What has been said recently
Chronological feed of verified information about the club.
Matchday 4 finally brings the season's first match at La Cerámica: Villarreal host RC Deportivo on Saturday 5 September at 21:00, after three consecutive away trips that yielded only two points.
The club has passed the 19,000 season-ticket mark for 2026-27, around 82% of a Cerámica taken to 23,173 seats after a renovation that redistributed the stands and improved evacuation arrangements.
Away tickets for Borussia Dortmund v Villarreal, on Tuesday 8 September at 21:00 at the Signal Iduna Park, went on sale at 50 euros, reserved for season-ticket holders, peñistas and supporters, until midday on Monday 7 September or while stocks last.
Three Cantera Grogueta players now wear a first-team squad number: Alicante-born midfielder Carlos Maciá (16), Valencian goalkeeper Rubén Gómez (13) and Senegal-born defender Alassane Diatta (5), all working under Iñigo Pérez.
Only two signings over the summer: goalkeeper Peter Gulácsi bought for €1.5m from Leipzig and midfielder Nathan Saliba signed for €15m from Anderlecht.
The kick-off times for matchdays 5, 6 and 7 are confirmed: Villarreal v Real Betis on Monday 14 September at 21:00 at La Cerámica, Málaga v Villarreal on Thursday 17 September at 21:30 at La Rosaleda, then Villarreal v Levante on Sunday 20 September at 18:30.
A third matchday without a win: a 1-0 defeat at Mendizorroza against Alavés (Lucas Boyé, 31). Iñigo Pérez: “Hemos tenido muchas ocasiones y no hemos materializado”, “debemos corregir por qué encajamos los goles”.
The Champions League league-phase draw is known: Villarreal will host PSG, Napoli, Sabah FC and Manchester United at La Cerámica, and travel to Borussia Dortmund, Liverpool, Slavia Prague and Fenerbahçe. The campaign begins on 8 September at Dortmund and closes on 27 January against Manchester United.
Canadian midfielder Nathan Saliba, signed from Anderlecht (€15m according to FutbolFantasy and Fichajes), joins Villarreal; Iñigo Pérez sees him as an addition to help absorb the twin load of LaLiga and the Champions League.
News last verified on 18 Oct 2026. Sources: sports press (L'Équipe, Le Parisien, Foot Mercato, regional press…) and official club websites — see the link on each item.
Editorial content (playing style, mood, absences, external prediction sources) last verified on 3 Sep 2026. The standings/form data above are refreshed automatically — as is the 1/X/2 estimate, recomputed on every view.
